The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

@Gored, I knew that would get a response just after I posted it

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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@polo why so negative? Positive signs for parts of the southern Alps for this week and beyond snowHead

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Not negative at all.....for the future, it just wasn't vintage autumn, but all that is about to change. Still snowing nicely today, staying cold until a little bump higher 5-8th due to Iberian low pumping up mild air over france.
But the real interest has been pointing to 9-13th dec for about a week now. Even well beyond that mid decemeber is likely to remain blocked to the north so about as good a set up as you could hope for in the lead up to full opening / xmas. Some say it looks like 1984, others are thinking 2010, since we last had such a good pattern early Dec.

ECM day 10 mean anomaly is the best, showing a gap between Greenland high and residual scandi / east euro heights.

But GFS and GEM aren't quite there yet, and would delay any northerly drop until at least 11/12th.

Here's the ECM mean pressure chart at day 10. Main lobe of polar vortex firmly over on the Asian side, with accompanying clear Greenland high. A one in 15 year chart possibly (for a day 10 mean).

Latest ECM 00z Op show's the breakthru from the north....but it's tilting to SW, trying to link up the Iberian low. Not ideal for the alps as initially the deep cold will be too far west. Still time for it to change obviously, and I think in the following days it would sweep back to the east.

Zooming in on new GFS 00z op show's the hoped for evolution with a more direct hit over the alps.

While this all plays out there are still pockets of low pressure over france / med.....so likely to be further modest top ups.
GFS 00z Op not too shabby out to the 7th

Widepsread snow likely just the start of a very wintery spell for most of Europe.

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la Clusaz have pushed back their opening due to conditions, they are looking towards the 11th December now.

Looking a bit rainy lower down: https://app.webcam-hd.com/la-clusaz/bossonnet

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@polo loving your work great news for snowHead

s less so for fuel billls electricity supplies and associated geopolitical stability or lack thereof Confused

After all it is free

I may be over swinging the shift from meh to epic just a little....northern europe better placed at the moment to get direct hit of arctic air.

NAO and AO both heading deeper into -ve territory, but these are indicators of pressure differentials that are quite far from the alps. As mentioned a west based -NAO can easily lead to warm air being driven up into the alps from low pressure that is too far west.

Still you can see the overall colder trend emerging on these 9 day GFS charts. These anomalies are vs last century.

06z tones down the snow for southern side this week.....hard to pin down, but somewhere might get lucky....and then everywhere might get luckier, later on.
Am using the relative calm to stock a lot of wood, might order more oil.....solar of no use at the moment....and just seen a big spike in UK power prices today, so no harm being as prepared as one can.

Here’s a list of what’s open so far:
https://www.skiresort.info/snow-reports/europe/sorted/open-slopes/

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Seems that there is enough of a base (with artificial snow) to allow for Zell am See, Saalbach, Kitzbühel, and Zillertal to all open up next weekend. Overall there has not been all too much snow, but the huge dump we got last week saved us (there were many ski tourers and free riders at Kitzsteinhorn this weekend). We got some snow today down to the valley so everything should look white and wintry, but its all a thin veneer; the base is still hugely reliant on snowmaking.

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Very good start to the season in central Asia. A couple of resorts already open.

snow reports

You know it makes sense.

I imagine Asia and NE US / Canada are doing very well.....and look set for at least another week of deep lows......spinning anticlockwise, so snowier down the left flank of any dark coloured areas on these charts.

Here's the current (tomorrows) pattern via UKMO......two major vortex lobes, one over Canada and the other Asia

And then day 7.....showing a split tropospheric vortex, courtesy of Greenland high wedging north.

The first obstacle - getting the purple vortex area to drop down into northern europe around 7-8th seems well modeled now, with all models on the same page and support from the ensembles. GFS has been hesitating for a few days now but has belatedly joined ECM's lead etc.

The second challenge comes in the days after this, re. how far south the deep lows reach, and will they be too far west (disaster / warm air for alps), or too far east (still good for austria). Or potentially, starting west (high snowline) then swinging east with the cold flow....but ideally we get a straight up bulls eye dart for the alps. Need a few more days to be confident.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Big differences in GFS and ECM.

+192 GFS

+192 ECM

Though neither quite delivers the knock out blowcthis morning.

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Neither really delivers for the northern Alps, ECM better. But NE Italy (Aosta valley) up into Zermatt looks good this weekend (40-60cm down to 1000-1500m).

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Differences start across all the models at about t+120. It’s a complex set up with Atlantic lows coming under the Greenland block meeting NE arctic flow. Models will struggle with the phasing of the two sets of lows, with temperatures all over the place. Seeing anything from +4 to -8c at 1500m as warm air from the south meets the incoming polar boundary.

So too early to say how it pans out, but I still think there will be widespread snow and the general pattern is going to be with us out to mid December judging by the mid range anomaly charts.

GEM and JMA 00z runs this morning were very nice, but again too much variance early to have faith in them.

Details probably won’t be clear for another few days……much drama ahead

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Chaos!

In weather forecasting speak - "we ain't got a clue" Laughing

After all it is free

Grand Bornand looking very green, they say "no chance of significant snow in the next week"

its only at 1000m

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@davidof, yeah but immediately after that.....incoming purple polar vortex

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@polo wow this presumably is the terrifying for Western European governments but fabulous for snowHead

s ensemble option?

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@hd, i just did a few hours work for 2m3 of seasoned chopped oak.....which is greedy as I already have enough trees for 5-10 years Very Happy

Those charts are going to update 4 times a day for the next week, so as I said much drama ahead.....really can't make a snow forecast at that range, but it has epic potential

I really should know better than to even look at this chart.....but it's an option, so here it is

GFS 12z freeze level way out in Fantasy Island

and 1500m temps

You know it makes sense.

We fly out on 16th December. At least we could wear our thermals and jackets travelling rather than packing them.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Polo, this is too tantalising, I need to try and avoid this thread for a week or so to avoid the swings of optimism and despair! We're heading to Les Gets on 17th. I'm already seeing if I can buy a few more warm things, if it starts raining instead at least I have some new gloves for next time....

And God forbid the chance of too much snow and ice in the UK, i remember December 2009 all too well when the UK airports got shut. At least I was heading home, always feel for those who can't get out to their holiday.

I'll be quiet now in case i jinx anything!

A snowHead

Plenty interesting in this evening‘s models.

Short term here’s that snow in NE Italy.

Longer term here’s a cold and snowy +240 on GFS op run with (as above) more of the same in FI (building some support in the ensembles too, but far from nailed on).

A snowHead

@nozawaonsen, ridiculous charts. Hard to stay rational

@Randyp909, @Boarderfarce, it will.be epic

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

If we get the the Fantasy Island runs, what sort of snow is to be expected? 40cm at 700m in Austria? 2m at 2500m in the NW French Alps?

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My professional weather forecasting friend says of these crazy charts:

9 times out of 10 they never materialise, but there is a surprising amount of consistency between the different models

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

I feel like a recovered alcoholic now I am no longer glued to this thread, and the models. Good luck, chaps.

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@südtirolistdeutsch, no one can estimate that.....especially without a timeframe

@kitenski, this is the one

@pam w, yes it's just snow, but for some weirdos the hypothetical algorithmic illusions are just as addictive

Throwing cold water on the whole show was GEM tonight. But's that fine, there's always one.
I'm not going to look at a chart or read this thread until monday. By then we will know more than we don't know.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

I’m going to Champoluc next Friday the 9th for four days so am reading the above with much interest!

After all it is free · Last edited by After all it is free on Thu 1-12-22 21:34; edited 1 time in total

@maddness, I'm going to Champoluc tomorrow for the weekend and I'm more worried I can't get thru to book a table at the Sapin Shocked

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I think what @südtirolistdeutsch is asking for is fair… what does fantasy land look like?

Help!!

The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

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