Here in Australia we’re having a cooler than typical winter. Sure enough we’ll have glimpses of spring within a couple of weeks though. I’m due to be in France for five weeks from about New Year so I’m really looking forward to watching the European weather slowly change from summer to winter. When does the first snowfall generally happen in the high French resorts? I’m guessing early November?
@sbooker, yep you’d normally expect to see bands of snow coming through at the highest altitudes from September, but nothing really likely to stick around much till November. Of course there’s variation in that too. Sometimes it arrives early, sometimes late.
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I demand more snow this coming season. I was not happy with last season’s performance.
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After all it is free
Can a 'mod' sticky this thread ??
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Snow for the glaciers incoming
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So pleased to see you noza!
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Welcome back @nozawaonsen!! This thread wouldn't be the same if you didn't start it, in fact I think it might jinx the whole season. Actually I think the lack of precipitation in the UK since 22nd June is partly down to this thread not starting then
PS.. did I see a sprinkling of snow in Val Thorens on the webcams last week?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I think the big question is - is the High over Europe beginning to break down after several weeks? One for the experts.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@8611, It's not been a great year for precipitation, but glaciers always look worse in August. I am a little surprised you've seen people up there though – there's a major storm on its way and flood warnings across Tirol. The glacier might look better tomorrow, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it today!
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North America looking at possibly the trifecta of La Nina winters?
Quote:
Confidence is growing that a third consecutive La Niña will occur this winter – something that meteorologists have termed a “Triple Dip La Niña”. Back-to-back La Niña winters are fairly common, but three consecutive La Niña are rare.
A La Niña pattern has persisted into the summer of 2022, and long-range models have been projecting a higher than average chance of a La Niña continuing into the winter of 2022-2023, before possibly weakening in the spring of 2023
If another La Niña were to verify this winter, it would only be the third time since 1950 that three consecutive La Niñas occurred.
Every La Niña winter is different, but in general, they favor above-average snowfall across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies and below-average snowfall across the Southwest. Correlations are weak for Colorado, Utah, and Tahoe.
Sometimes, La Niña winters can be snowier than average across nearly the entire Western United States, with recent examples including ‘07-08, ‘10-11, and to some extent ‘16-17. However, the past two winters (which were both La Niñas) were underwhelming for snowfall across most of the West.
@8611, It's not been a great year for precipitation, but glaciers always look worse in August. I am a little surprised you've seen people up there though – there's a major storm on its way and flood warnings across Tirol. The glacier might look better tomorrow, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it today!
Yeah I only usually have a look in summer out of amusement / fascination with people still skiing, so don't have a good comparator in my head, this year paying a bit more attention because of the other areas shutting. Looks sad though so hopefully a cosmetic sprucing up comes, looks whiteouty there now
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@8611, I’m not sure there has been any snow. It’s hard to tell because of the cloud, but I can’t see any evidence of snow up at Stubai either, so I think it may have just been heavy rain.
I think the worst of the storm has passed now, though it keeps raining intermittently. There has been some flooding in Vorarlberg I believe, and a few roads blocked by mudslides, but I think the worst of it missed the Innsbruck area. Certainly, I have seen a lot worse, and in the end it wasn’t such a violent storm.
What was terrifying though, is the speed at which trees were uprooted in a very fast and violent storm on Thursday that hit further east. Five people were killed by falling trees, including two kids at a bathing lake – somewhere that should be relatively safe, but apparently the storm ripped through in minutes. The others were hikers out on a trail.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Scarlet, It was pretty grey and damp when I was driving over the Brenner on Saturday night, from the limited views in Sterzing it certainly looked as if it was raining (or whatever) at the top of the Stubaital. It was very wet indeed from Innsbruck to Kufstein
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This might be of interest. Mostly a report on the effects, Europe wide, of the prolonged dry spell. It does have a forecast for rainfall in the next few months (page 13) which suggests the central Alps will continue to be drier than normal. https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/news/GDO-EDODroughtNews202208_Europe.pdf
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Not a huge surprise, but generally looks warmer than average across Europe as a whole over next 10 days.
Over the Alps looks about average in terms of precipitation in the east possibly slightly above average in parts, drier in the west. Pyrenees is a bit of an outlier in appearing a little wetter than average.
Firstly, at best we’re talking about something which increases or decreases the probability of a broad trend for the climate over the season. Secondly, it’s impact is more broadly felt (in a general sense by how it shifts the jet stream) in the US and Japan rather than Europe (by the time the jet reaches the Alps it will have been buffeted and twisted by other factors). Thirdly even in the US translating it into what this actually might mean for the weather is not straightforward.
All that said it’s still one of the big seasonal drivers. So…
As @Toadman, said above the money at present is starting to point towards La Niña.
Been following Brian Gaze’s “the weather outlook “ for many years , he’s good , and right more often than not . His Autumn forecast will be warming the loins of those up north with an unusually for these days below average temperature call for November.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Precipitation starting to increase in the anomaly charts.
@nozawaonsen,
Any historical correlation between early autumn weather and winter weather? Does a completely new weather pattern emerge as winter approaches?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Not really is the short answer. Any correlations are very weak to the extent that they end up being pretty meaningless as any form of predictive tool.
Well, now the summer holidays are over, my thoughts turn immediately to my winter trips. I've dusted off my Snowheads login, and started to take sneaky glances to the long term weather forecasts and to webcams. Worryingly at the moment, everything still looks very hot and dry, and it only feels like a couple of weeks ago that the tour De France went through Chatel and Morzine in baking sunshine.
I have everything crossed for a good early season for the PDS , as we have the week before Christmas booked for a two family trip to Les Gets (a little risky at 1000m, but has been pretty reliable early season over recent years).
I am really hoping that a long hot summer doesn't extend to the Alps in December, as I want to show the second family we're going with the best time in the mountains as they have not been for many years. Hopefully the comment about limited correlation above between summer and winter stays true! I've also got a few days in early March in Kitzbuhel with mates, hoping for some good snow there too, we were there in March 2020, almost the last out before the place was shut down with Covid and there was some very good snow at that time too.
Anyway - fingers crossed for all, I imagine for many, like me this is the first season back since Covid, so there's a lot riding on this season, and some good snow needed!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Rather early for the "is it going to snow in my favourite resort" questions, pretty much still summer. However the folks at Severe Weather have published a first look at long term trends in terms of potential snowfall for the coming winter https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-snowfall-predictions-long-range-models-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ . It is not very positive for a decent European snow season. I know there are those who say that Farmer Sepp's pet marmot is as accurate and there are all sorts of variables at play (volcanic eruptions) but this sort of forecast has a chance of being somewhat more accurate than a furry rodent
From past experience, between now and November a large number of people (and sites) pop up with careful quite detailed winter forecasts.
One of them will be remarkably accurate.
The trick is to know which one . . .
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Jonpim wrote:
From past experience, between now and November a large number of people (and sites) pop up with careful quite detailed winter forecasts.
One of them will be remarkably accurate.
The trick is to know which one . . .
Very accurate description;-)
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Jonpim, absolutely.
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Peering at mid month there’s a bit of a plummet in temperatures as they fall around 10C which could see 10-30cm falling at Hintertux above 1800m. Interesting…
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Looks like the first UK snow could be as early as Friday over the huger Cairngorm summits. That would be quite a turnaround after the long hot summer further south.
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