 Poster: A snowHead
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Looking pretty dry after the coming snowfall. Should be some pleasant weather mind you.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@denfinella, that looks like a bit of an outlier? maybe a scaling problem as it's only ~45 cms
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| denfinella wrote: |
Some exceptionally heavy snow in the Julian Alps tonight - near the triple border of Slovenia, Italy and Austria. Here's are the GFS ensembles for Kranjska Gora (Slovenia):
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[img]http://www.vogel.si/jvogelcam/slika5.jpg?1673858347[/img]
that's from Vogel in Slovenia! First proper "big" snows out there.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@under a new name, heavy but short-lived (perhaps I should have used the word "intense" instead). Not particularly an outlier though - repeated on several ensemble members and multiple model runs.
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Gone a bit quiet on here…..are we not liking what the models are pushing out in FI?
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@denfinella, yeah, that's why I suggested a scaling issue as at first blush it looked impressive, but then you actually look at the scale and, well, not so much.
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| 8611 wrote: |
Just wondering as thinking of going to la thuile early next week as a result of forecast. Any fear the models are misinterpreting the nuance of the valley, and / or the computer is really giving us the numbers for the linked resort of la rosiere on the other side of ridge? |
It’s been snowing pretty consistently in La Thuile since 10am this morning. Visibility is poor and very windy at the summit. Link to Rosiere is closed. They’re saying it’ll be the same tomorrow. But there’s a break in the weather Wednesday/Thursday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@RetroBod, not much change I feel, not that I see anyhow on wetterzentral wigglies for Zermatt. Modest amounts. The temps are low so at least this helps hold what we get and enables artificial on heavy traffic pistes.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@craftybob, thanks hope to get out there either Wed or Thurs. Was happily watching the webcams today. I will in the interests of science do a pole test to see if the predicted amounts come good. At the moment my guess from looking at them is yes.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Lots of snow in the last few hours in the Valais
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Wepowder has 80cm at Ellmau over next 6 days then fine weather even stretching out for 14 days (yes I know that’s way too far in advance but I’m going out in 10 days…!)
Bergfex has a bit under half of that fall, but that’d do. Cannons running in the valley so at least it’s getting colder.
Amazed how quiet SkiWelt is on the cams away from the top of the Hartkaiser
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You know it makes sense.
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Has to be said Zermatt in the upper Valais is not getting much at all. Very cold mind you
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yes after the excitement of the current snowy spell we’re moving towards quieter weather. Cold and fine in the west first, clouds and snow clearing more slowly in the east with temperatures eventually rising from next week.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Calm, sunny and not too cold = most people's (including mine) perfect skiing weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
| Calm, sunny and not too cold = most people's (including mine) perfect skiing weather. |
Very much so. I've never been much good when I can't see where I'm going. I'm quite happy pretending I'm a half decent skier when there are conditions like that.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Yes after the excitement of the current snowy spell we’re moving towards quieter weather. Cold and fine in the west first, clouds and snow clearing more slowly in the east with temperatures eventually rising from next week. |
It's still staying relatively cold for next few weeks in the models I'm looking at. So at least the relatively small depths of snow at lower levels should mostly stick around.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Calm, sunny and not too cold = most people's (including mine) perfect skiing weather. |
Yep. I've been torturing myself and chasing conditions for the last few seasons and don't recall a period of such heavy snow followed by such cold temps and bluebird days. Should be really really good.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Better than expected overnight in Verbier and forecast to keep going through tomorrow. Best conditions of the season from Thursday…
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Can someone please explain what is happening on wepowder? Projected 6 day accumulations have Germany and north Swissy off the charts… with no obvious narrative to explain?
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| joe.b wrote: |
| Can someone please explain what is happening on wepowder? Projected 6 day accumulations have Germany and north Swissy off the charts… with no obvious narrative to explain? |
Same as SkiWelt etc- showing 80cm to 100cm over 6 days, more than 5 times what Bergfex are showing...
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@BobinCH, How high is that? Looks pretty comparable to Cham valley. Most welcome 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I thought the charts were showing some decent wigglies? (technical term I know).
When is the next possible snow showing up in the charts?
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@joe.b, not sure it is "off the charts" but it is a lot certainly a lot more than the forecast I use here to see what is coming up in our village https://www.wetteronline.de/wetter/kirchheim-bayern-85551 (its not far from the mountains, on a clear morning on the drive into work can see from the Chiemgau to the Zugspitze). Not sure which model Wepowder uses but neither of the two main ones GFS or ECM are showing anywhere near as much ( https://www.wxcharts.com/ is a good place to look to see the various forecast models there are other sites too), it is likely to be an oddity of the algorithm they use as the forecasts are generated automatically, Henri's summary forecast doesn't mention any particular heavy snow for the northern eastern alps (he highlights the south eastern alps). The sort of pattern shown is not unknown (what is called a northern "stau" , German for queue) but it needs a persistent northerly airflow usually associated with a low pressure area over the southern Baltic, which doesnt appear to be on the agenda currently, an example would be the "snowmaggedon" episode in January 2019.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Yeah… anything more than 10-20cms is off the charts for this season but agree it’s a little on the sensationalist side 
Mystery continues… hope wepowders model is right!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Here’s the 12z GFS ensembles for Chamonix.
Snowfall petering out before a fairly extended dry period by the look of it. Temperatures cold till next week when they start to warm up a bit (relative to the next few days, but not particularly warm).
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Dr. Amy coming around to the idea of an SSW event
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You know it makes sense.
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@shredder, though she goes on to say “How exactly the #vortex will evolve at 2+ weeks shows amusing levels of uncertainty. The models generally all show a deceleration, but how and where the vortex will change is completely unclear. (384h forecast shown here for entertainment purposes only).”
Marco P at the Senior Operational Officer at Met Office offers some additional thoughts:
“If at 1st you don't succeed..
GFS deterministic continues to suggest 2 periods of warming over N Pole next couple of weeks, with a 2nd more pronounced episode ~30th..suggests a major #ssw sudden stratospheric warming (10hpa 60N wind reversal to E)
Ensemble output still mixed.”
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@shredder, though she goes on to say “How exactly the #vortex will evolve at 2+ weeks shows amusing levels of uncertainty. The models generally all show a deceleration, but how and where the vortex will change is completely unclear. (384h forecast shown here for entertainment purposes only).”
Marco P at the Senior Operational Officer at Met Office offers some additional thoughts:
“If at 1st you don't succeed..
GFS deterministic continues to suggest 2 periods of warming over N Pole next couple of weeks, with a 2nd more pronounced episode ~30th..suggests a major #ssw sudden stratospheric warming (10hpa 60N wind reversal to E)
Ensemble output still mixed.” |
Easterlies look a bit weak at the moment but here's hoping. Regardless of SSW long term forecast is looking like lower than average temperatures into February
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Remind me, SSW good for snow for the alps or bad??
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Dashed wrote: |
| Remind me, SSW good for snow for the alps or bad?? |
Last SSW was the "Beast from the East" in 2018 which brought a lot of Europe to a standstill with snow and low temperatures. SSW brings low temperatures, not necessarily to the Alps but the polar air travels to lower latitudes.
To my knowledge it doesn't necessarily bring precipitation, open to correction here
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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More snow than forecasted falling down now in Zell am See, Kitzbühel, and Wildkogel Arena
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Les C has had 85cm at 1800m in the last 3 days. Bit more in the forecast today and tomorrow. And very cold. Should be great
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FAQ
I read that as "at least one child in your backpack" 
