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Portes du Soleil 2022/2023 - Avoriaz/Morzine/Les Gets/Chatel/Swiss Side etc.

 Poster: A snowHead
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Came home yesterday. Actually nice skiing up high in the bigger resorts - Avoriaz (avoid Super Morzine area) and Chatel were great. Morzine & LG brown in the usual spots but some good bits e.g. Nyon, Chamossiere. We also went to Abondance & Roc D'Enfer which were suffering - pretty patchy where they get the sun.
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Just got back from Chatel were we spent the week in Super Chatel area where kids had lessons in order to avoid the holiday crowds at PLJ / Linderets / Avoriaz and not stress about getting an early car park and 45 min traffic jams at the end of day. Skiing was chilled and lunches with friends were long and sunny while older kids were lapping snow park and Conche. Very happy with our week as we generally ski hard when we go on long weekends.

@MrsM, Super Châtel front face had good cover (good snow making area) but soft. Back side of Super Chatel off Morclan is all mud as sth facing with no snow making. Chalet Neuf area is suprisingly doing well as gets shade in the afternoon. The runs down to Morgins are closed. We ventured to Linga for a few laps which had great cover - as north facing and pistes were previously well prepared for Europa Cup - and also went over the ridge to Les Combes in PLJ area where there were nice soft bumps in the afternoon (which I love). Friends skiing at PLJ reported good snow but manic crowds. A dump is needed to refresh south facing slopes below 1800m - am sure Morzine and LG have the same issues. Could be complicated this week as the holiday crowds head for higher ground.
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@MrsM,
Icy in the morning, slushy in the afternoon. Higher north facing pistes still have fairly wintery snow. Lots of lower slopes have brown patches and are being repaired every night. Pisteurs are doing a great job.
This week's precipitation event may or may not improve things. See above. I am expecting fairly high level rain followed, hopefully, by some snow to lower levels. I'm not sure where you're staying but Les Gets and Morzine look pretty green around town, but fear not, there will still be skiing, whatever the weather does.
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We skied all across the Swiss side then down into Lindarets and back today. Overall pistes are still in good shape, with just one or two of the south-facing link runs between Champoussin and les Crozets showing a few brown patches. TBF the pistes were pretty empty over here today, as it's Carnival weekend in Valais, and the Swiss take that quite seriously. So the pistes weren't being skied quite as much as they might have been.

On the French side, extrapolating from just the couple of runs we did (cos I needed to get back for a lesson) conditions are still excellent. Even the off-piste was nice and firm with enough grip (Obviously depending on aspect and sun exposure, but I was pleasantly surprised).
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I was in Les Gets on Saturday - rather icy in the morning and very soft in the afternoon. Cover getting very patchy where there's no snowmaking.
The pistes are unsurprisingly worse than a week ago, with the morning ice cover also incorporating some of the leftover bumps.
Skied Roc d'Enfer today for the first time to get away from the crowds - circuit is still possible but very barely so. Lots of thin spots where there's no snowmaking and closed runs, although I loved the area as a whole.
Crossing my fingers for some snow this coming week, a decent top up would go a long way.
By the way, most of the snowmaking reservoirs looked pretty empty so cold alone wouldn't be enough to really improve things much.
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If there weather continues as is anyone any thoughts on what coverage will be like in march? Haven't been out since christmas & Out for a few weeks around St patrick's day have a feeling might be an early close this year! - Morzine Avorz area
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Was out Sat and Sun in the Central Core of PdS.
Avoriaz, Les Crosets, PLJ, Lindarets, Linga ...
Snow was hard early doors, and then became softer and grippy around midday as it transformed, coinciding with the pistes emptying from 12-2 for lunch. These 2 hours in the sweet-spot were great both days.
Bright sunshine, warm weather, pistes great.
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Knife edge doesn't quite capture the level of tension in the weekend temperature charts, but we knew this from a few days ago looking at the mean anomaly charts that showed most of the cold slipping too far SW. Not a whole lot has changed, I've been thru all 7 Op charts for Sat morning and am none the wiser....it could be -2 or +4. Summed up by the 3 main models, mean temp at 1500m here Sat morning (blue is -ve).

GFS-GEM-ECM


In terms of ppn, while there is less scatter than the last time I looked, its still showing a range of 5-35 mm / cm for our corner. Above 1800m that will be nearly all snow, but at 1400m.....I'd guess half.
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/haute-savoie/accumulated-precipitation/20230226-1800z.html

Sunday has another wide amount of scatter.....from mild and dry to cool and snowy.....might as well throw a dart. And into next week the cool easterly signal is weakening towards a milder SE flow as the high pressure to the north sinks a little, but pretty average stuff.

So no high fives yet....but steady progress in the longer term outlook. Am talking 16 days away....many will dismiss this as not remotely possible to forecast. But there is strong agreement across the 3 main models (mean ensemble charts) for the much anticipated polar vortex move (dark purple areas below). It normally resides over Canada / Greenland, but pressure from the strat is trying to force it over to north russia....which is a much more favourable spot for some extended northerly flow into europe. Can't ask for much better looking mean charts at over 2 weeks away.....maybe they are too good as you'd expect changes over the next week. Everything crossed as we may need base build 3.0 lower down by then.

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@MrsM, just back from a week in just the Morzine-Les Gets area and actually had some of the best "poor mans powder" conditions I've ever had. Temps were well above zero both day and night so while a couple of very low/very exposed patches were getting slow, wet slush right at the end of the day it wasn't freezing into ice overnight. That said you could almost watch the snow retreating as the week went on and I think this week is going to be quite ugly, and the week after...the weather pattern has got to break at some point and bring us some snow! By the end of the week I'd say it was 80% of runs white, 10% with brown spots, 5% bare sports, 5% closed. We only found 1 really bad run on the M-LG side, Fenerets off the top of the Charniaz Express.

I did one day in the main area, taking some of the better children in our group to experience Chez Babeth and the Tetras run under the Zore chair at the top of the Super-Morzine was just a brown streak across the grass. Past that everything looked "OK" though.

Worst case, you're still away from home/work and in the mountains - just don't go out all layered-up!
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Last day for us for this trip. Would concur with all the above - some of the runs in the Ranfoilly bowl (esp the red down from Charniaz) are a bit grim with bare patches - but there’s still plenty of decent skiing to be had. On that side the run down to Perrieres was in remarkably good nick. Been over to Les Crosets today and things are holding up ok over there but for how long I’m not sure. Runs off Grandes Combes in Avoriaz are, as usual, in good condition. They’ve scraped pretty much all the snow off the Zore blue (the straight down one), I assume to repair Tetras so as to allow people to ski back to Super M - but even that is getting very sticky and brown. Hoping this weekend brings some white stuff down to 1500m or so, which as Polo says is pretty marginal.

Back out on 2 March and hoping for a different picture by then…
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Thanks everyone, still crossing my fingers for *something* this weekend (as long as it's not rain!) We are staying in Les Gets so guess we'll just have to head up and hope for the best. Got a lesson first thing Sunday so hopefully the instructor can show us some of the better preserved runs. And yes, it's still a week off work!
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andy from embsay wrote:


Back out on 2 March and hoping for a different picture by then…


Same here - out for a long weekend but I'm not massively hopeful, I'll be honest!!
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Marginal can go either way.....just because there is no broad consensus yet does not mean we won't get cold and snow to low levels. Maybe even knee deep in places if you're not the tallest.
GFS not as interested as other models but we know it has issues......keep dancing. Although so far from the 5 models updated on the 12z about 4 have issues and there's one that looks really good.
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You know it makes sense.
Fair chance of rain polo? Out on Friday and while it wouldn't stop us, just don't like the idea of having to ski in a bin bag.
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@B1g_browner, looks too warm on friday, freeze level 1800-2000m, but might not rain until the evening. Then temps start heading down Sat onwards....could get very cold sun-mon, but really too far to be confident, and as above we're never far from the cold/warm boundary
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@polo, Thanks for the response, fingers crossed your predictions are as spot on as they previously have been.
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I'd trade any accuracy for a fresh dump but it doesn't look likely this weekend. We seem to first miss the snow to the west, then the second shot is all heading east, and to rub the final piece of salt in early next week we'll probably miss any action to the south. One of those seasons.

Wed-Fri freeze level locked in now around 1900m, but thankfully it doesn't look like a damaging amount of precipitation lower down....0-10mm likely.
Sat-Sun hold more promise as the temps drop below zero, though probably too late as it could well be dry all the way into next week - cold and sunny. Should get the cannons running at least.

Best chance of a few flakes might be Sat morning, but there is still a wide range of temps showing....-4 to +4 is silly at this close range, but we're right on the edge of warmth from the SW and cold from the NE.

1500m temps below for 7am Sat
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/deu-hd/haute-savoie/temperature-850hpa/20230225-0600z.html

And by monday, more like -3 to -7
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/cma/haute-savoie/temperature-850hpa/20230227-1800z.html
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And still the uncertainty reigns! Guess this is one of those periods best wait and see... ChamonixMeteo saying 15-20cm at 1800m over Friday and Sat, MeteoAlpes going with a dusting at best and rain up to 1,900m.

Ah well, new piste skis arrived this morning and I'm currently without wider skis / touring set up so that should flick the gods of snow into action and provide some fresh snow for next weekend when I'm back Very Happy
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@Dashed, uncertainty reigns is better than certainly rains....only a dribble during the mild spell. Cham Met have dropped from 35-40 to 15-20 in total, even that might be the top end of expectations. Apart from ppn amounts am actually seeing broad consensus pressure wise all the way to March.

Here are 7 models showing the likely pattern sun evening


It would be the first area of low pressure to be over us since mid Jan. Saw some french record was broken for number of days of winter drought.....32 and counting. Varying degrees of intensity of the low on the charts, but either way it's more likely to bring deep cold than deep snow. The signs have been there for a good while now, high pressure building north towards Scotland and an easterly undercut across the alps. Mixed in wth a med / genoa low it clearly favours the southern side, and we have the problem of the main alpine ridge / mont blanc massif in the way preventing much of the ppn getting to the NW. But I've seen this pattern deliver 10-20cm locally before so I'm expecting a significant dusting at worst (sun night).

Looking further out it's all going to plan still. Greenland high, polar vortex over Russia / Scandi and a real blast of winter for most of northern europe. Clearly too far to say whether France will benefit as many twists and turns to come.

The anomaly charts line up nicely (mon 6th)


And latest GFS freeze levels (Op will swiing around of course from run to run). It's a very wide mass of polar air.....UK likely to be in the freezer, but we'll have to wait a good while to see if NW alps will be on the cold or mild side.

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Thank you @polo, really appreciate your time doing this.
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I'm off to Avoriaz end of March, and so i will be taking an ancient assym alpine snowboard out of mothballs (in expectation of many grooves likely to appear in the ptex). Question is, do i put high temp wax on the base or affix grass-skiing skates?
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Current weather report @ 1250m:
P1ssing down with rain.
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Looks to be snow above about 1800m - summit of Mt Chery is heavy snow at the minute
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@OuatteDePhoque, Whereabouts exactly are you?
No precipitation here in Morgins yet, and still +7C outside, at 1350m. Quite overcast, but still not looking like rain or snow.
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@Chaletbeauroc, my Châtel webcam was showing rain when WTF posted earlier. There are dark clouds looking up valley towards PLJ.
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@Chaletbeauroc, about 10 miles west or Morgins.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Ozboy, WTF is the Alter Ego of WoC (who managed to delete his own account) but I guess you knew that Smile
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@OuatteDePhoque, I had no idea you did some phoquerie with your account. Hope to see you at some point during Easter break.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Ozboy, You too. I can bring a snowboard for your daughter too Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@OuatteDePhoque, had no idea either, I was wondering WTF happened to WOC, but was thinking this new bloke is much better craic anyway. Win win.

Rain earlier was only a glancing blow on its way to the pyrenees....another shower on fri into sat probably.

A few of the 12z deepen the low on sunday...so maybe 3rd time lucky. Models are likely undersestimating snowfall under this pattern (currently showing near nothingness)....understandably they see the big mountains in the way. But hope conquers all.

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@OuatteDePhoque, Idea !!
I'd say welcome back, but you never left!
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OuatteDePhoque wrote:
@Chaletbeauroc, about 10 miles west or Morgins.


Aha! Makes sense now.
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Did much fall yesterday/over night? I'm still following this thread even though I wont be out there again this year. Fingers x for all of you!
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@elefantfresh, no snow in Châtel overnight but balcony at 1270m is wet. Visible reduction of snow on rooves as we look down towards the village centre.
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Aw darn, thats a real pity - I'm genuinely sorry to hear that. Lets hope this possible March thing works out and that there is still some base left by the time it arrives!
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@elefantfresh, Pleasant enough now. Not too much melt here on the piste, sun poking through the clouds.
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Good to hear it - a wise man once said to me years ago when I had to unclip and was moaning about walking a cat track "Any day on the mountain is better than a day at work"
I'd love to be walking a cat track right now.
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Wasn't expecting any snow yesterday, just a dribble above 1700m ish. Main band is still due Friday night at about 1600m FL and then hopefully a little more down to the valleys on Sunday into Monday morning. Longer term event won't be clear until next week...all the low pressure to the north is going to throw up an area of high pressure somewhere in our vicinity, so no clue as to whether all the cold goes into the atlantic or stays too far north / east, but either way we should get more than one shot at a good outcome.

Still decent cover down to the village, sunny and not too busy for a peak week.
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First time poster here - I’ve been watching the weather with trepidation and am not getting any more confident about things improving by the time we are in Avoriaz on 11th March. At this stage I’m just hoping there will be enough snow for my kids second ski trip and the first for my nephews. Just would love them to have some fun learning to ski. From looking at recent photos/webcams I think we’ll be safe enough in that regard. Any opinions? Also if anyone has any restaurant recommendations in Avoriaz for a group of 13 adults and kids that would be great Eh oh!
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@Maniemoo, snow will be fine I'd expect, what kind of food/restaurant are you after?

This is a pretty useful doc Smile https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aE9crBSfm32N7GOLUPxH-po2p0mLyoiLV5Y-602SnYE/edit?usp=sharing
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