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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, So next week with the usual caveats is it likely to be dry in Eastern Austria?.......and warming. Or is it still in the <>?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@RetroBod, yep looking dry all over, with warm air coming up from the med monday onwards, but far eastern Austria and southern side probably the last areas to feel the impact

most of alps will be similar, but here's salzburg as an example, +5c average at 1500m

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Ah well, you couldnt delay that warm up for a couple of days could you? Anyhoo we will hopefully get some sunny lunches. Had to go later this year as I broke my leg in October last year, so could do with it being less heavy!!
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Not quite outlook...

Flew from Munich to Barcelona this morning, blue skies over the entire alpine range which is unusual.

Reasonable amounts of snow on the northern side of the main ridge (flew over the Zillertal) but as soon as over the ridge the snow levels dropped dramatically. Sella Ronda resorts looked thin with the lower slopes white lines amid green fields. Even above the tree line there were large areas of green. Madonna & Passo Tonale seemed to be struggling, not sure all the areas are open, I suspect Pinzolo is closed. Onwards towards Bergamo it was clear of snow.

The southern Italian & French alps had very little snow cover. Monte Viso was mostly rock. Didnt spot Isola but guess not much snow. There was one sad French ski station which was just thin lines of white amongst otherwise green & beige mountains.

Many more winters like this and many more ski areas will close.
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@munich_irish, guess who has just booked Sella Ronda (for the very first time) for this week next year?

Google maps satellite view has most of the area just as white lines on green/brown. A regular occurrence it seems, but I’d like to give the area a try.

It’s great when you can pick out resorts from the air - landing at Innsbruck a couple of years ago I too could pick out the Zillertal.
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@munich_irish, nothing new I remember some horrendous school ski trips to Italy in the early eighties being bused to the nearest lump of snow . I’ve followed snow reports for untold years and it’s always seemed to me that Italy was either feast or famine with those stations south of the alpine ridge relying a couple of big storms/ Genoa lows a season that’s why they’re so good a snow making . Without using records but just memory Italy has had a good run of it in the last decade or so . By the way have you seen the snowfall in the ski resorts in Apennine’s behind Rome , it’s huge this year .
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
munich_irish wrote:
Not quite outlook...

Flew from Munich to Barcelona this morning, blue skies over the entire alpine range which is unusual.

Reasonable amounts of snow on the northern side of the main ridge (flew over the Zillertal) but as soon as over the ridge the snow levels dropped dramatically. Sella Ronda resorts looked thin with the lower slopes white lines amid green fields. Even above the tree line there were large areas of green. Madonna & Passo Tonale seemed to be struggling, not sure all the areas are open, I suspect Pinzolo is closed. Onwards towards Bergamo it was clear of snow.

The southern Italian & French alps had very little snow cover. Monte Viso was mostly rock. Didnt spot Isola but guess not much snow. There was one sad French ski station which was just thin lines of white amongst otherwise green & beige mountains.

Many more winters like this and many more ski areas will close.


Currently in the Zillertal. Can confirm that up top at least, piste depth is still decent. Hard pack though.
Done a couple of valley runs. The 5 from down the Ahorn. Was lovely but that was at 11am.
Just done the 1 down from Kaltenbach to the car park to end the day….that was interesting….. Very Happy

Down in the valley, anywhere in the shade is hanging on to the last bit of snow, but anywhere south facing is snowless.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
GFS seem optimistic for the Arlberg around the 18th, this morning. Still too far and have to see if it gathers support on the next runs.
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If there is no snow in one place bound to be lots of the stuff somewhere else

https://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2022-03-10-sw

Sounds like the powder might be good in Greece & Turkey at the moment.
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Is there significantly less snow in the Northern Alps this year and is this a trend? Lots of investment in snow making...

I remember seasons where there was meters of the stuff, this year it seems like there's a few inches being scraped out across the mountain : (
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Is the climate crisis impacting the Alps right now?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
albertosaurus wrote:
Is the climate crisis impacting the Alps right now?
What, this morning?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
at 11.38 gmt
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
It was fine at 9am Sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
10-15cm in Cervinia last night. Forecast was Zero. Woken up by snowploughs in town at 5am
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
30cm in La Thuile, much more than the 2cm forecast! Unfortunately it all turned to porridge when the temperature rose.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We had orange snow across Mürren (Schilthorn) today. Informed it was Sahara sand blown in on a strong southerly.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Rogerdodger, been the case over a wide area. In Munich it became so gloomy that the street lights came on, just like an eclipse, there was this weird yellow glow and the cars were covered in sand. Rather odd. Dont think anything to do the the warming climate, episodes of sand being carried from the Sahara have happened before.
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Chance of a shake up to the status quo approaching at month end

The strat PV regrouped fairly quickly after the last plunge end of Feb (alps largely missed out due to persistent Scandi / German high), but that is looking like it's last stand for this season.....plunge no.2 (red) takes westerly wind speed below zero m/s in a few days and into SSW territory. Could well be the final warming of the strat as the last pools of arctic air are pushed south.



Ensemble mean forecast for strat wind speed to stay around zero for a week or so, meaning the PV is fragmented....spinning top wobble


This GFS mean chart shows the Scandi high still in place this weekend, with cooler air arriving from the east again


But by day 10 the high starts to regress west up towards Greenland. High pressure building over the arctic forces a large trough to dig south over Scandi / north Russia.
GEM and GFS very similar, but they leave residual highs over western europe.


ECM mean day 10 shows the high slightly further west but also shows lingering heights over Europe.


So not a great signal yet, just signs of a change.....get the high pressure out into the atlantic first and then the chances of N/NW flow opens up for the alps
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@polo, an element of grasping at straws Very Happy The latest GFS run suggests a Genoa low right at the end of the forecast period though way too far away to have any meaning. Rain in Italy in April is hardly unusual!
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@munich_irish, yep I am always grasping at something if it's not snowing outside and we are stuck under high pressure for weeks on end. Am I in the wrong place? Very Happy

You're telling me a GFS Op run at +360 hours is worth grasping? At least I have a bunch of (useless) straws when using ensembles and multiple models.
That cut off Iberian low is still being modeled on several runs, keeping the southerly jet theme going with vast blocking to the north.
In fact my default NOAA 8-14 day outlook is showing similar, never a good sign for northern alps. It's probably wrong wink , or late, or both. Change is coming.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
So expert weather watchers any chance of snow over the east side of Switzerland in the next couple of weeks?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@polo, GFS 14 day run so 01.04! No connection to reality......
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@t44tomo, With something as random as weather there is always hope but the chances of any significant change in the current weather pattern are small. There is never a non existent chance of change but sun cream and mountain bikes are likely to be more useful than ski wax Sad
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@polo, was certainly bl00dy windy in Zell am See in late Feb - which your first plot shows - outside 2 sigma...

Wondering what skiing will be like in Obergurgl in 3 weeks time...never skied that late in a season. Guessing... "spring like..." and probably like lower resorts normally are in March. Which would be fine.
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You'd have to say early April will be spring like 95% of the time, but winter rarely goes out quietly.....although it tried to last year, don't think we had any fresh snow from february on, and without any terrain management the pistes deteriorated quickly and sadly all by themselves.

Until the 13th Apr mini dump arrived...exhibit A at 1500m.



I like the odds this year, we've already had a long dry spell, and now have the vortex back under control quite early.....so somewhere is going to get lucky.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've just over 3 weeks until I go, so am still hoping for at least one more dump just to freshen everything up before we go.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
purely anecdotal based on around 15+ Easter trips but later March/April does seem to get more precipitation than Feb/early March.....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
kitenski wrote:
purely anecdotal based on around 15+ Easter trips but later March/April does seem to get more precipitation than Feb/early March.....


Just got to hope the temperature at the time of said precipitation is not above ~ 2°...
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@buchanan101, little video here of the time that happened in April Smile


http://youtube.com/v/iNYz8qvIjEE
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
On my way to the arctic circle and the temps there are way over average hitting 3 degrees at the weekend. We were expecting down to -20 with windchill.

I am getting a bit concerned that the lakes we will be going over might be a bit wet Wink
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Slushy bumps by 1pm at 2000m at Hochgurgl on Wednesday, looks like it's rained a bit this morning too. Been coming the last week of March for 5 yrs pre covid and this has been the least snow cover and highest temps we've experienced.

The saharan sandstorm has had an impact too leaving brown patches all over the pistes.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
5c outside my house in Morzine this morning Shocked
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@ol_smokey, ditto sand in Cervinia
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@Little Martin, discussion of the current warm temperature anomaly in the polar regions https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-circle-strong-temperatue-wave-forecast-spring-march-2022-fa/
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I popped in here at this thread to see what this Sarah Sand has done to the pistes?
I imagine that a coating of anything other than white is going to allow the heat to be absorbed rather than being reflected by the white stuff. But, I don't know.

@munich_irish, Happy St Patrick's day
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It has seen slush appear much earlier in the day and it is very grippy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Is that a ray of hope on the horizon?
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Not if your going touring next week it isn’t
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@Rob Mackley, blue sky and spring snow has to be better than touring in a blizzard and no vis surely?
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