 Poster: A snowHead
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So, there seems plenty of cloud cover now. But is anything falling? Surely there must be a flake or two tonight! Any reports?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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There's been a couple of flakes here, not much though.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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skanky, looks like JMA are standing by their 18th/19th prediction. Any views?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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so PG, what's the news this morning?
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Tony Lane, 2cm fell at Saas Fee last night, hopefully that has affected a number of other locations.
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No substitute for our man on the spot but this was 9am at Arc 1950 yesterday and this is the same today. if you look at the roof of the walkway between the two buildings it looks like a heavy frost to me 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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JMA are still predicting snow for earlier in the week, and are the only model not predicting any for later in the week. UKMO FAX didn't update properly (not that unusual) so I'm still unsure as to what they think will happen early next week. The high pressure will build this weekend then move away eastwards, to be replaced over Europe by an Azores high. The shape and tming of that is what is causing the models to differ in their timing (and amounts) of snow next week - but I'd err on from about Thursday onwards. As usual the airmass boundary seems to be across the Alps so some parts (NE) will do better than others and as to whether Les Arcs does well willd depend on too much detail for now. There is also some evidence of the odd trough in the Adriatic or Med that could bring a little snow to the southern Alps but with a big low over Greece, it looks like central Italy might get more snow than France in the early part of the week.
Again it'll change, but still optimistic about the end of next week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Tony Lane, just back from Val, quiet, probably still the best conditions to be had around the Tarentaise. Virtually nothing fell anywhere else in the upper Tarentaise valley, a sprinkling in Val, perhaps 1.5 cms (being optimistic!). Don't know about the 3 Valleys - has U checked in yet? - but blue skies with a little high cloud from pretty early on this morning.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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PG, at times like these, we're grateful for anything!! Thanks for the update. I think that I will have to see what it looks like when I get to Tignes on Saturday morning.
Evolution 2 have not replied to let me know whether an instructor can get me started with skiing on Saturday and so I might be boarding on Saturday and then, unless i am pleasantly surprised, I will fix up some private ski lessons for Sunday onwards. As with skanky, I am hoping for fresh snow later next week so that I can run around on the board again rather than spend my whole trip skiing slowly and incompetently.
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All: The latest (today) Ski Club UK Snow Overview seems  very optimistic for lots of new snow. Where have they that forecast from, have I missed something?
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You know it makes sense.
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Surely it's time for an update from Skanky?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Don't the Ski Club get their forecasts from snowforecast.com? If they do, I've always found that snowforecast.com to be very optimistic.
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Poster: A snowHead
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jungle_ranger, not much change (and I am in the usual pre-holiday work rush...home plumbing problems haven't helped). Anyway, there's now quite strong agreement for NW air flow over the country and all models who show precipitation are showing some....the others just show situations where my untrained eye would expect some. This is Wednesday, with only JMA (still from yesterday's run) suggesting any before that (Tuesday). As usual, the further NE you go, thet better it gets. It looks like places like Les Arcs are just those few miles SW for better conditions. We're looking at what can come through after this weekend's HP moves esat and before any sort of Azores high can move too far eastwards. While it's further west, fronts and moist air masses can slip round the top and down into the western Alps. My last update tomorrow, unless the snow's so bad I end up in an internet café next week. After that, you can stick to the professionals' views.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skanky, much obliged. a good report would be a nice present on my birthday  before flying out this weekend! ps i still intend to find sites on how to read the charts - busy too but when i find any will let you know
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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jungle_ranger, yeah, it's been something I've been meaning to do for months.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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12z GFS now showing more agreement with the rest of the models about the latter half of next week (and even some agreement with JMA). Not showing lots of snow, but amounts are details to be worked out later. The irritating thing is that all f the models are shoing a slight ridging slap bang over the Tarenteise which is probably what's reducing the snow amounts a bit. If they could all just smooth that out (or even better kink the isobars the other way) things would look a bit better.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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skanky, fingers crossed. I have pm'd you about catching up on the Eurostar. Best of luck with the last day in the office.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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you know, we should have started a sweepstake earlier in the week about will it \ won't it, and if it does then when and how much.... 
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and skanky, your views and interpretations have been 1000% better than the so-called professionals, thanks mate and I hope you have a good holiday no matter what happens with the snow! 
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Tony Lane, if you - or anyone else - are around Sunday, and passing by the slalom stadium (to right of big car park as you come into Val Claret), I'll be there, taking photos of a race (one run super G, one run giant slalom) between 9.30/10 ish and 2pm (if we're lucky enough to get away by then). Probably won't bother taking skis. I'll be somewhere between the finish and the top of the wall before the arrival area, if I can be bothered to walk up that far. Will be wearing beige/black jacket, black trousers, wearing blue baseball cap marked "Wedderburn"....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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PG, I'll keep an eye out! I'll be wearing an old royal blue and black North Face jacket, light grey trousers and probably wearing a shiny black helmet and a black Da Kine rucksack. Cannot tell yet whether I'll have my board or will be getting used to skis.
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Tony Lane
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Evolution 2 have not replied
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I emailed Evo 2 in Tignes before I went in December. I still haven't had a reply!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Tony Lane, I haven't received any PM messages for a few days...so I've found out I'm in seat 11 - come along and say hello.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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zippy, I wouldn't say they've been any better, most professionals try not to predict that far ahead - and Meteo France did say no *significant* snow before 18th. Have a good one yourself, whatever the (lack of) snow and that goes to everyone on this thread.
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skanky, good - seat 11, coach 11 - I'll come and find you.
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You know it makes sense.
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Tony Lane, yep. See you then.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The Bracknell synoptic looks pretty hopeful for the middle of next week. The Azores high is clearing off back where it belongs and directing all the nice wet Atlantic weather towards the centre of the mainland of Europe. I reckon we are going to get some decent snowfalls next Wednesday and Thursday. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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AAArgh That was my post no 666! Have a good slide skanky, Tony Lane, et al next week. Save some for me at Half tertm1 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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cheers Chris Bish, that is some positive news (in the circumstances).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Chris Bish, yeah I was just going to come on show this chart (nb the url will show different charts over the days). It's still far enough to change but once it gets to within FAX range confidence improves and remember, it's had human input (which is interesting as the UKMO model still shows a bit of hp ridging similar to GFS & GEM which confirms that I still have a long way to go to read the models properly). Anyway, if that came off there would definitely be *some* snow. How much would depend on how vigorous the fronts are. GFS has the high stronger and ridges more eastwards, pushing the fronts more through Germany, eastern Switzerland and Austria - and UKMO have more precipitation falling there, too (if I was making a late booking, that's where I'd go now - but don't take my word for that if you are). GFS has light precipitation for a couple of days more from the moist air mass hitting the hills and the shape of it suggests that they think that the northerly mountains will get the bulk of it (rain shadow & Foehn effect would deny areas more to the south).
GEM holds the high pressure ridge over the western Alps until Friday when it finally fades away and brings (what looks like to me) a reasonably decent frontal system through.
NOGAPS bringsd a frontal system through Tuesday night/Wednesday.
ECMWF are supporting the broad picture and haven't changed much from yesterday (indeed the 500hpa charts are still yesterday's).
All models show rTM (returning Tropical Maritime) airflow towards the end of the week which will warm things up after the high moves away, but will provide the possibility of more (relief) precipitation.
This is Sembach's view of Tuesday, which backs up what JMA was showing (unfortunately JMA has not updated for some reason). However there's some agreement from GFS:
http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1023.html
http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1024.html
Doesn't like like much though but if it's the start of a couple of days worth of snow it'll build up a bit and is better than nothing.
So while there is still some differences of opinion between the models, all are showing some snow coming through from about the middle of the week onwards, though as is usual, the further NE you go the better it will be.
Temperature wise, it looks like cold nights and cool days for a few days, warming up as the week goes on, but not looking (yet) anything like as warm as the last week or so.
The Balkans and parts of central Italy will have a (relatively) cold start to the week. That cold air being drawn too far south for us, it may bring snow to parts of central Italy though after it crosses the Adriatic.
Hopefully I'll see the 12z models before I have to leave this evening.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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skanky, excellent review. Its funny that GFS were predicting something better 10 days ago, and then changed their mind, perhaps they were right after all. Hopefully JMA will get fixed today and will back up GFS. Also Ski Club UK appear 'very sure' of snow so at last there may be something to play in. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Let's hope so. We shan't be seeing a cloud over the next four days at least - sunny, and warm - with 0°C between 2300m and 3000m in the Tarentaise Valley. January? Felt more like April this afternoon in Les Menuires.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Excellent news, and just in time for my trip out this Friday!
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same here rob@rar.org.uk, now feeling much better about prospects for Arc 1950 for next week....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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On the whole the 4-day Meteo France are pretty accurate, though I've found they often get the temps wrong. Snow is still lying on the ground in Bourg Saint Maurice at 800m from the December falls, when Meteo France predicted the snow line would be above 1200m.
Martin, are you attending the snowHeads meet in the Flying Squirrel on the 24th?
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