 Poster: A snowHead
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rob, that the one, so that when he said there won't be a dump we'd all know it would bucket down.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Michael Fish is at Metcheck, I think.
Also, he did say "hang onto your hats, it's about to get very windy" or similar words. The quote about the hurricane was about Florida - some researcher's mother was in Florida and had phoned up about that. He said that there wouldn't be a hurricane hitting Florida at that time. The clip you see is a piece of judicious editing to make him look bad. That's the story I've seen anyway and it tallies with my memory of the time. I'd like to see the whole broadcast, though.
Anyway Rob, thanks for the vore of confidence, but I'm merely an amateur who knows merely enough to be dangerous, and not much more. I hope no one's making any plans based on my posts - more that those who have booked can see what may happen. Snow Forecast and the like I think, use the same models whose output I'm putting up here, it's just they have proper forecasters and some knowledge of the Alpine conditions and local effects and stuff to modify it.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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skanky, I know that Fish gets an undeserved hard time over the hurricane quote, but I couldn't resist the joke!
While you might be a "mere amateur" I do find your commentary interesting, particularly as I've forgotten all the meterology I did at university. With appropriate health warnings about not booking holidays, etc, I think that a Snow Reports And Forecasts section would be a nice feature on Snowheads - it's a subject that we all obsess about so why not have a section to obsess in?
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I'm kinda finding a perverse pleasure in seeing which way this weather will break. there's a group of us going to Arc 1950 on the 22nd and there's nothing we can do to change the dates or location given that some of us are driving over from Limoges, others flying in from the UK, so all this talk about 'will it, won't it snow' is making the run-up to the 22nd all the more interesting!
and it's making ol' Bungle go even greyer overnight at the thought of no snow... 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Well, the JMA (japanese) model is still showing a small amount of precipitation for Sun/Mon, but all the other models and the FAX charts are now indicating that the front will stall too far to the north (this is the cold front associated with this weekend's UK storms, incidentally). The JMA was last run at midday yesterday though, so I expect it to "catch up" with the overnight runs of the other models. NOGAPS and GFS and (I think) GEM are predicting some precipitation for Thursday/Friday (NOGAP doesn't go to Friday, yet) and GFS reckons it will start on Wednesday. Not huge amounts, but some. The FAX charts don't go that far, yet. It's when things get into FAX range that I start to get a bit more confident - especially if they agree (there's a broad agreement between Sembach & UKMO at the moment for the next few days, for example).
Right, this is where things are starting to look up. ECMWF (European) and GFS are showing a high pressure area developing over the UK over next weekend (14/15th-17th). Although they both still expect a high pressure ridge to sit over France, the eastern flank of the UK high will bring northerly winds down into central Europe and hopefully, snow over the Alps. The position of the high is all important as it will determine where the air has come from (thus whether it's dry or moist) and where it comes down to. Both models show the high in just the right place to bring the stuff from the northern Atlantic (moist), down the North Sea and straight into central Europe. Which looks good. None of the other models are out to that timeframe, yet but all show similar signs of the high building late in the week (even the UKMO FAX chart for Wednesday hints at it). Keep your eye on here to see whether the high continues to develop. Moving forward to the following week (and way too far for any degree of confidence) GFS has the high moving back over Europe and a return to similar to what we have now.
We're not talking about large amounts (I'd prefer a low pressure system to move down through the UK and send some active fronts through France, but this seems to be the best we can hope for at the moment), but it should be cool temperature wise and may well last for a few days. It seems to me that we can be reasonably confident that the UK high will develop (though we are still talking about just over week). The biggest variables are the position (and size) of the high, thus the longitude of the northerlies and the length of time that it will hang around. Currently we're looking at the eastern Alps to get a bit more snow and the high to hang around for a few days, but that sort of detail will probably change.
However, I for one am feeling a lot happier about the timing of my trip. For those going this weekend, I hope the GFS is right about you getting some stuff by Wednesday....the FAX charts are in disagreement about that day, so I'll leave it open.
Looking forward to seeing next week's charts now (though I may be on a customer site on Monday  ).
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skanky, if you're happy, I'm happy!
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Tony Lane, at the moment, yes I'm happy. If this was Feb. I'd want more snow than what's being indicated, but with quieter slopes, it's looking like enough for now. Incidentally, which coach are you in on the E*? We're in 11.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Though David@traxvax reports that the local meteo reckon on no more snow until the 18th...I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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skanky, not usre - my tickets are still with the guy that has sorted everything out. I probably won't get my ticket until i get to Waterloo. Perhaps see you on the train, and let's hope we are in a confident mood at the time!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Tony Lane, okay. If you want, you can ask who in coach 11 is skanky, I doubt there'll be many others answering in the affirmative 
...I should know by then whether or not I'll need to hide!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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i would imagine that, given some of the meanings of the word skanky, you could upset quite a few people by asking if any of them are skanky!! could be fun, can you post pictures of the resulting ruck on here please....
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zippy, I was picturing him standing in the doorway and loudly asking "Who's skanky?" I'll have my camera ready anyway, just in case.
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You know it makes sense.
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skanky, so, does everyone call you "skanky"? I'll come and find you somehow - although maybe I'll try a different approach to the ones suggested above!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Tony Lane, a reasonable number of people - oddly though, none of the ones I'm skiing with. If I had my ticket with me I'd PM you with the seat number, but I don't. I do know I'm in one of the single seats though.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Discounted ski/board rental rates and taxis now on SNOWeSCAPE site (see sig)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the midday GFS run has the high pressure a lot further to the SE than before and covering the western Alps (backing up the local met forecast - they may had seen the output already as I think it's available to forecasters earlier). I'm less happy now, and I'd be happier if I was going to Austria....still, it'll no doubt change again (and again) over the weekend. We'll see what they're saying on Monday.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yes, I suggest that you stop punishing yourself and avoid all weather maps over the weekend
I am now consoling myself with the thought that if the situation is bad, i will just book some private lessons and learn to ski. I've been looking for an excuse to do so for ages, but if Tignes was full of powder, you wouldn't be able to coax me off my board for love nor money.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Tony Lane, it'll keep changing. As I said originally it'll all come down to the position and size of the hp area. That probably won't be known for sure 'til sometime next week. Even if there ain't much falling, at least it's unlikely to be particularly warm. Can't rely on GFS alone, anyway.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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anyone know any good witch doctors? 
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zippy, did you find one? Although non-ones giving more than dustings before 17th/18th, GFS is now suggesting we'll get a reasonable amount by the end of next week. If it's your witch doctor, keep him happy otherwise it'll change again. 
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yep the forecasts are certainly looking better since the 12pm report today which shows a better outlook...I don't have a witch doctor but bungle is doing a sterling job deciphering the GFS charts for me!
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zippy, get him to bung them on here, he's got to be better than me and I'm after all the extra I can get. I've only seen the 12z run as far as Monday morning so far, and it looks okay, the 06z run was looking as good as it has done. It'll change a few times (me saying that's about the only constant), but if this trend continues I'll be a happy bunny.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Zip, I am keeping everything crossed and forcing the kids to say snow prayers 4 times a day - the boy confessed to missing one yesterday but has made it up today.
As I mentioned in a previous post I've learnt a lot following this thread but having looked at each chart over the last 48 hours the clearest thing is how much anything past about 4 or 5 days changes. Still with the precipitation chart starting to show things happening on Mon/Tues next week those days are at least getting towards a time frame that has a hope of coming true.
skanky - better than you ? - three of your posts on here taught me all I know !! - i am just looking at the charts through the german site you put up but also here which shows them out to 360 hours (for what its worth)
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 10-01-05 18:26; edited 2 times in total
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I don't like the look of that blocking high. Can't see a lot of snow going where it matters this week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Just followed all of the 12z charts. That blocking high is not expected to hang around too long, the lp's coming in off the Atlantic are probably too deep. Anyway, if the hp formed in the right place, it could bring a NE blast down, which wouldn't be to wet, but would be cold. Current trend is for a coupld of lp systems to come in through the UK over the next week or so and bring some prolonged falls towards the latter half - not necessarily heavy (as the high moves away and one in the eastern Atlantic move sin, the winds get brought down through Central Europe there is a slight worry that things are a little warm, but it's way too early for that detail), but it should be for a few days. As has been said, it's too far out to take as actual, but the lp systems coming through soon are just too big for the CE high pressure to withstand for long. If GFS is even broadly right, then the first week of Feb. could be a good one with HP threatening to re-assert itself after a good week's worth of precipitation. If GFS is more wrong, then who knows - but the potential's there.
This chart shows a trough sitting over the Alps that bring some stuff early next week. Don't worry too much about exact position as that'll change (as likely for the worse as the good - GFS has had a knack of starting off with something big over Europe and successive runs lessening the feature as the hp wins out), but it's nice potential. It's also just ahead of that front (through the centre of the UK) that is what is expected to bring the next (reasonable) lot of snow the next day. Whether this front gets reduced with each GFS run we'll have to see. That's what I'm watching now.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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GFS for Saturday: http://129.13.102.67/pics/Rukm1201.html
UKMO for Saturday: http://129.13.102.67/pics/Rtavn1201.html
Both showing a broadly similar pattern. Look out to the west though as the low pressure system coming is different and I've no idea how that'll pan out. 
I think the UKMO one looks better, though of course the more wrong GFS is short term, the more wrong it is long term. Looking again at it's long range stuff, I really can't see it coming off. We should just take from it the fact that the pattern will probably change from this blocking high over central Europe.
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so reading between the lines we've got a good chance of precipitation over the area sometime mid next week, but then we're talking about long range forecasting here which if the last couple of weeks are anything to go by, can be horribly inaccurate?
FYI there is a patron saint of snow, it is 'Our Lady of the Snow' ("Dedicatio Sanctæ Mariæ ad Nives") and refers to a blessed church in Italy...so get praying chaps!!
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
| so reading between the lines we've got a good chance of precipitation over the area sometime mid next week, but then we're talking about long range forecasting here which if the last couple of weeks are anything to go by, can be horribly inaccurate? |
Yeah, that's about it. When going further than about a week just look for trends. The problem we have is that there's quite a big disagreement between GFS (US), UKMO (UK) & ECMWF (European) models even for this Saturday - which gives low confidence (they are having problems resolving the high position and that affects everything else and as they use different methods, they have better advantages and disadvantages). Once they start to agree with each other we have a better confidence.
All three do suggest it getting warmer and drier under a ridge this weekend, but the general synoptix set-up around it is different and ECMWF has it more to the West, which is not what we want. The sooner the ridge gets through, the sooner we can get some fronts and northerly flow through. The biggest worry is that the hp builds to a block...which is only hinted at by ECMWF (often the better model, unfortunately). So though GFS is hinting at good days to come, there's plenty of suggestion that it may not come off. What forecasts you'll get will probably depend on how much store is put on GFS above the other models. I should tsrat taking the GEM, JMA and other models into account. The FAX charts though are now starting to come into play, so we should get a clearer idea soon.
| Quote: |
| FYI there is a patron saint of snow, it is 'Our Lady of the Snow' ("Dedicatio Sanctæ Mariæ ad Nives") and refers to a blessed church in Italy...so get praying chaps!! |
Burning a goat as we speak.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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skanky, dare I ask whether GFS are ever right. I have been tracking for 5 days now and the prediction changes (often 3 times per day) . Tonight they are very blue and suggesting a better week from the 17th. Were they correctly predicting the dry spell we have now?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Perhaps answering my own question, they have changed yet again for next week, damn!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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so any update on predictions?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I was just happy to see the cannons spluttering out a little snow for an hour or so this morning. First time it's been cold enough for a while. Not so much as a cirrus in sight at the moment.
Rental shop owners are looking grim. Too much custom for the wrong reasons at the moment!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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the GFS charts don't look at all promising at the moment, surely this has got to be a first for such a large region to have such little snow for so long?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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zippy, not really, the season before last it hardly snowed at all from Jan through March. It's worse now as the base just isn't there.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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And it's a problem affecting a much broader area of the Alps. Just had an email about a race cancelled this weekend in Vars. Even the southern Alps are suffering badly.
??? Is that really 5,000 posts ???
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congratulations PG, you win a complimentary flake of snow from the top of Les Arcs. Well, you would do if there was any
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zippy, hey there i see you're off to les arcs on 22nd. a gang of us are heading out there on 23rd. you guys all seem to know what you're talking about and the forecasts not looking a good... especially for a relative beginner like me
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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PG, haven't a clue where that is and i don't even know which village my chalet is in but that'd be nice
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FAQ
