 Poster: A snowHead
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Hi All,
I have always skiied on piste, until last year when I tried off-piste. I am sure I don't have to tell you lot what that did to me and my expectations of skiing!
It was always a precondition with my wife in order to go skiing that I would never do off-piste.
The big scary thing we are most afraid of is of course, avalanche death. So many people die every year. In Espace Killy, at least a handful die every year.
From my reading it would appear, most deaths occur: (1) when avalanche risk is 3 (as opposed to 4 or 5); (2) within 100m of marked pistes (as opposed to backcountry); and (3) in presence of (and sometimes to) qualified guide / ski instructor. Correct me if I am wrong in any of this. I know the main reason for this is because greater no's of such skiiers doing off piste, but it tells me that danger is never negligible and it can happen to any one, at any time, and perhaps luck is one of the most important things to have on one's side.
Question I have is: what are the odds - for someone who say does 5 or 6 half day classes of complete off-piste in a week, of being seriously injured or killed in an avalanche in the course of the week, assuming "average" conditions etc. (risk 3 say) ?
Does anyone have any stats or good guestimate?
I estimated about between 1 and 5 per 1000 off-piste weeks, based on what I estimated is the no. of people doing full-week off-piste / backcountry classes in Espace Killy (around 100 per week? but I don't know if this is in any way accurate) (disregarding skiiers doing occasional or a little bit of off-piste).
Would be very interested in opinions of those of you with a lot more expertise and knowledge than me.
Thanks
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's impossible to generalise it - the risk varies too much. It is however entirely possible to ski lots of very very safe offpiste. FWIW, in a fair few years of skiing a lot of offpiste, I've only actually seen one avalanche release, and we weren't in danger from it.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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In Austria last year I think more people died on piste than offpiste (because it was so warm there wasn't a lot of offpiste and many skiers flew off the side of the crowded pistes and hit hard ground, trees and rocks etc instead of soft snow).
Some of what you wrote is a bit like saying - most people die while parachuting with a parachute therefore is it more risky with, should I try it without one?
The most important thing to have on one's side is the ability to minimize the risk = safety training, safety equipment and the knowledge in how to operate it. Snow sliding equipment (Snowboards, wide skis etc) make it easier to ski offpiste but they don't dimish the risks by the same magnitude.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Axsman wrote: |
| The article makes the point that the risk of dying in a car crash on the way to the ski resort is higher (0.022% chance of death) than the risk of dying in an avalanche once there (0.00018%). |
But then a significant proportion of skiers never do more than the odd green run during a day. The risk of dying whilst drinking coffee in a cafe is nearly nil...
BTW, 0.022% chance of death is 1 in 4,545. Does that mean that if there are 45,000 skiers in the resort on a particular day then ten of them are going to die that day? Or in their lifetime? Even that sounds rather high...
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I read somewhere, probably on here, that more people die on piste due to heart attack than die in avalanches off piste.
Certainly each village in La Plagne now has a Defibrallator point and the piste rescue guys carry defibs on their skidoos.
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| Quote: |
more people die on piste due to heart attack
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I nearly did this year when I saw the bill for lunch 
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My rule is:
Stick to Euro "between piste" areas (or US "inbounds") unless accompanied by a local instructor or guide. Although I'm a very experienced (for a holidaymaker) and reasonably competent skier, I cannot reliably assess degree of difficulty or risk in areas where rescue would be difficult.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Boris wrote: |
| Quote: |
more people die on piste due to heart attack
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I nearly did this year when I saw the bill for lunch |
With the French minimum wage now at €9.19 an hour (UK is £6.08 ) and Vat at 19.6 % puts those bills into perspective!
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patricksh, I do one weeks skiing a year and that is generally an off piste course with qualified trainers and ski guides. Risk assessments are performed on a slope by slope basis, so this does reduce the likelihood of sking slopes that could avalanche. Saying that however, I was caught in an avalanche a few years ago on a course, I obviously survived as did my skiing partners and I count myself very lucky. I still ski off piste, but am not afriad to turn back if I feel uncomfortable with something, be it conditions or risk of falling etc etc. I am naturally cautious but i still do it. For all the science that exists and the expert opinions you are still dealing with nature and only you can judge if you want to accept the risks involved in doing something like sking off piste or even driving.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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i don't know what the exact stats are but one of the classic avalanche risk management techniques (the Munter risk reduction method) is supposed to make the risk of death in an avalanche about the same as that of death while going for a walk in the mountains
i think there will be miles more than 100 people doing off piste classes in Espace Killy every week, and many more on top of that skiing off piste unguided
as a general rule, you can make off piste skiing pretty safe with a bit of knowledge. for example you could make the decision to stay off avalanche prone slopes altogther when the risk is 3. you need to learn to recognise avalanche prone slopes in order to do this obviously
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I guess the statistics become a bit meaningless the day it's you.
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| Megamum wrote: |
| I guess the statistics become a bit meaningless the day it's you. |
The statistics are probably pretty meaningless most of the time, avalanche deaths don't usually spread out evenly during the season, it's often (or seems to me at least) a few deaths in the same period, and then again later, etc.
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You know it makes sense.
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This is fear of fear, yeh you might die, but hey you probably wont.
Just accept that everything in life has an associated risk and if your comfortable with that crack on. The perception of risk levels and society's response to them opens a whole can of worms.
For example as a society we accept a significanly larger number of deaths in car accidents than we do from trains or planes.....go figure.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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James the Last, I didn't create the stats, just reported them. But I think your 45000 skiers question is of the order:
"Apparently, 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese. And there are 5 people in my family, so it must be one of them. It's either my mum or my dad. Or my older brother Colin. Or my younger brother Ho-Chan-Chu. But I think it's Colin" 
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Poster: A snowHead
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I take my 5 yo off piste quite often, certainly wouldn't do that if I thought I was putting him at greater risk than on piste. Normally just off the piste, on shallow slopes in trees or clearings where I know there are no obvious terrain traps and no towering slopes above us. I'll take myself off piste with fellow skiers further afield, equipped with local knowledge, avi awareness, avi equipment, read the avi report, phone, gps and good enough technique for the conditions. Avalanches are far from the only danger off piste, think about cliffs, ditches, tree stumps, tree wells, changing conditions, route finding, barbed wire fences, losing a ski, equipment failure, getting help in when a problem, etc. If you're serious about going off piste more get on a avi course, take some specific intro to off piste courses, read books and online, chat on snowheads - which you've already started. There's a whole new world waiting out there and it's not normally too crowded.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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waynos, Good post. Looking at some of the slopes while riding up in the train at Wengen at the MSB a couple of years ago I could see barbed wire fences dipping in and out of the snow. The thought of getting a ski tip under one of those at any sort of speed at all is enough to keep me from going off piste without a guide!
When I did a little bit of guided off piste (more 'between the pistes' really) at Val, my biggest worry was rocks. I could see some large ones sticking up and kept thinking what if there's one just below the surface up ahead. Fortunately our guide knew his stuff. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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42.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Axsman wrote: |
| James the Last, I didn't create the stats, just reported them. But I think your 45000 skiers question is of the order: |
So when you reported them, what were you trying to achieve if you don't understand them?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I was giving info to the OP. And sorry, but it's clearly you who doesn't understand stats.
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| Axsman wrote: |
| I was giving info to the OP. And sorry, but it's clearly you who doesn't understand stats. |
I think that's actually not a percentage. the figure quted was 25 / 139000 or 25 deaths in America per year vs 139,000 back country skiers per year. That isn't 0.00018%
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| Quote: |
| Question I have is: what are the odds - for someone who say does 5 or 6 half day classes of complete off-piste in a week, of being seriously injured or killed in an avalanche in the course of the week, assuming "average" conditions etc. (risk 3 say) ? |
Quite a loaded question and hard to answer because of the number of variables at work, not least the current conditions and snow-pack history. The other big factors when talking about the risk within a resort boundary is how the resort manages it's avy risk and the visitor profile to that resort.
For example, a couple of weeks ago I skied at a resort where they allegedly manage in-bounds off piste as per American resorts - it's all controlled as best they can down and I was impressed to see avy warning banners 'closing' popular off piste gullies which were actually outside of the resort boundary.
The flip side to this are some resorts that concern themselves only with avy risk to their pistes and everything else is left to Nature.
Also the risk of skiing off piste in a resort such as Chamonix where accessible off piste is skied very hard (effectively 'pisting' the off piste runs) is going to be different to a small resort down the road that doesn't have such high off piste traffic.
When you say 'Classes' I assume you mean off piste with an Instructor or Guide. If you are really worried I'd suggest sticking with 'Guide' over an 'Instructor' (The respective level of training is different) but I'd say the risk is low, and you are probably safer than being on piste where the real danger these days is the risk of collision.
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Steilhang, the full quote from the article is:
"Nobody seems to know how many people are backcountry skiers, but the ski industry reports $139 million of backcountry gear sold in 2007. Let's be generous and assume that each backcountry skier spent $1000. One can interpret this to mean that there are 139,000 backcountry skiers in the US.
On average over the past 10 years, the US has had 25 avalanche deaths each year.
25 avalanche deaths/139,000 backcountry skiers = about .018% chance of dying in an avalanche. (That's .00018)" I typod it in my requote to 0.00018% rather than 0.018% - Apols now corrected 
I think the point being made was that the chances of dying from an avalanche were less that the chances of being killed in a car on the way there.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
Stick to Euro "between piste" areas (or US "inbounds") unless accompanied by a local instructor or guide.
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I've only ever actually seen one avalanche release. We were on the coqs chair in La Plagne and the slide released right in front of us. The local kids ski racing club were skiing off piste with their instructor and three had already been down when it released under the fourth, and this was several days after any fresh snow.
Never believe blithely that you will be safe just because it's inbounds or even because it's close to the centre of the resort. I understand the girl involved was hospitalised and her condition was very serious but I never found out what the end result was.
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nbt, Saw a small one let go at AlpeDhuez a few years ago, it went across an empty piste. From a distance (on the chair lift) it looked like nothing but up close it would definitely have taken you off your feet, possibly caused a broken bone or two. I believe a cubic meter of (compacted) snow weighs around 3-400Kg? If so this 'little slide' weighed several tonnes.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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With all this stuff you need to understand the statistics. Otherwise as DB said you could make faulty reasoning like sky diving is more dangerous with a parachute rather than without because more people die sky diving with a parachute. Actually dieing in an avalanche is a pretty rare event given the number of people who regularly ski off-piste. However almost all people who die in avalanches trigger the avalanche themselves and thus did have an opportunity beforehand not to be avalanched. It's all about decision making and recognising the danger signs that signify that a slope is unstable so shouldn't be skied. A lot of people have a fairly successful off-piste ski career despite ignorance through luck and lack of exposure (e.g. only skiing one week a year). Once you start upping the exposure you are routinely throwing the dice more and more so being able to adjust the odds in your favour is very useful. The one week a year skier can still die in one but will more likely mitigate this by employing a guide rather than gaining and applying knowledge.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| meh wrote: |
| A lot of people have a fairly successful off-piste ski career despite ignorance through luck and lack of exposure (e.g. only skiing one week a year). |
Plus there is an element of positive re-enforcement at work. If a skier skies a slope and gets away with it, the perception is that the decision to ski was a good one.
However in reality they have no way of knowing if they were just lucky or the actual level of risk for that run.
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AndAnotherThing + 1. (For both posts)
Go with a guide and the risk is low; the risk is never zero but nothing in life is completely safe.
If you're not going with a guide gain the knowledge and experience to identify avalanche slopes / read and understand avy forecasts (there is a lot more to it than a just 3,4,5). This will involve learning from a guide, friends etc, etc.
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You know it makes sense.
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| AndAnotherThing.. wrote: |
| meh wrote: |
| A lot of people have a fairly successful off-piste ski career despite ignorance through luck and lack of exposure (e.g. only skiing one week a year). |
Plus there is an element of positive re-enforcement at work. If a skier skies a slope and gets away with it, the perception is that the decision to ski was a good one.
However in reality they have no way of knowing if they were just lucky or the actual level of risk for that run. |
Interestingly enough, neither do the experts, at least not with certainty. Most of the avalanche deaths reported in Austria this year, and probably every year, have been locals with excellent knowledge of the area they are skiing, the risks etc etc. Just yesterday a member of the 'Lawinenkommission' in one of the ski areas in Obertauern was killed on a piste that they had dug a snow pit on and were deciding whether the piste was safe for opening! Likewise the Lawinenkomission in Lech had actually controlled and dynamited the slope on which the Dutch prince was recently buried... likewise the run in Ischgl where a Swedisch guy was buried. Seems like the slopes don't really care whether you are an expert or not!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Steilhang, well the main cause of avalanches that kill people is poor decision making and people are inherently poor decision makers particularly with regards to judging risks. There are lots of 'heuristic traps' which are combinations of various cognitive biases that cause people to make poor decisions. Experts aren't immune and familiarity is actually quite a bad trap, ignoring obvious warning signs because "this area never slides" as an example. This is why people came up with ideas like the Munter method mentioned by Arno above in order to codify things as we're much better at dealing with checklists that produce yes or no answers. There are lots of interesting papers and articles written on heuristic traps.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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meh, I agree that the Munter method is good, but all it does is reduce the probability of you ending up in a slide. What you say about familiarity applies in equal measure to people acting as guides btw.
I find it amusing how many people come on here and tell us all about the fact that we need to acquire this and that mountain craft and then we'll be able to assess whether a slope is safe or not! Given the fact that members of the avalanche control team also get caught out ( and no I don't believe that they were victims of a heuristic trap ) I sometimes have my problems with all the expert advice I read on Snowheads.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Steilhang, I think everyone is clear that none of these things makes anything completely safe so it's a bit of misreading to suggest people are saying that. Obviously knowing skills and applying them does make thing safer but not completely safe.
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Given the fact that members of the avalanche control team also get caught out ( and no I don't believe that they were victims of a heuristic trap )
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What do you think the cause of the slide was then? Professional patrollers are not immune to making bad decisions.
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According to this guide's web site there were 17 avalanche fatalities in France last year.
davidof published a really useful analysis of 2008/09 avalanche deaths on his website (www.pistehors.com) that suggests that 60% of avalanche deaths are backcountry skiers and snowshoers in that year.
| patricksh wrote: |
| Question I have is: what are the odds - for someone who say does 5 or 6 half day classes of complete off-piste in a week, of being seriously injured or killed in an avalanche in the course of the week, assuming "average" conditions etc. (risk 3 say)? |
In absolute terms, very, very low and, in practical terms, probably the same level of risk if you are skiing off-piste as part of a supervised activity.
In davidof's analysis, 11 of the 35 fatalities were guides. But the important thing to remember is that guides spend most of their time off-piste and put themselves at much higher risk than the group they are leading by skiing the slope first. As it says in davidof's analysis, it's a dangerous job.
| patricksh wrote: |
| (3) in presence of (and sometimes to) qualified guide / ski instructor. |
Ignoring the "(and sometimes to)" bit of that statement, logic suggests that you're going to be safer with a guide - partly because of their experience and partly because they a greater proportion of the group's risk exposure.
Bottom line is that you have a very low absolute risk of death if you're skiing off-piste and even less if doing so as part of an organised group. The risk of injury is probably no greater than that skiing on-piste.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Steilhang wrote: |
| I find it amusing how many people come on here and tell us all about the fact that we need to acquire this and that mountain craft and then we'll be able to assess whether a slope is safe or not! |
My own experience is that it just teaches you how little you know - rather than giving you any belief in your own ability.
Again, in my experience and like the Munter method, it does give you enough awareness to stop you doing really majorly stupid things.
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| Steilhang wrote: |
| I find it amusing how many people come on here and tell us all about the fact that we need to acquire this and that mountain craft and then we'll be able to assess whether a slope is safe or not! Given the fact that members of the avalanche control team also get caught out ( and no I don't believe that they were victims of a heuristic trap ) I sometimes have my problems with all the expert advice I read on Snowheads. |
not sure if this is a reference to my comment, but maybe I should have said something like "stay out of avalanche terrain" rather than avoid avalanche prone slopes. i don't think you need a huge amount of training to identify whether you are in avalanche terrain or not. however, i accept that in a lot of places it simply isn't practical to ski outside of avalanche terrain altogether
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| James the Last wrote: |
| Axsman wrote: |
| the risk of dying in a car crash on the way to the ski resort is higher (0.022% chance of death) |
What you have written means that of every 4,545 skiers driving to a ski resort one will die. An entirely meaningless observation as, in fact, every skier will die.
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Well no. The odds of being in a fatal accident are 1/4545, that doesn't lead to the conclusion that 1 in 4545 will die, all drivers have the same average chance, the odds are reset with each new sampled driver. Go to www.Random.Org and play with their ramdom number generator widget on their front page, type 4545 in the Max field click Generate and see if you'd have made it to the alps...
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