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The All New Weather Outlook 25/26

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm not too bothered about the temperatures as long as the rain stays away, that's the main destroyer. I'm heading to Austria on March 7 and I'm anticipating the slopes will still be very snow-covered then.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
8611 wrote:
@buchanan101, @Peter S, very interesting and technical. I assume the cold snow in a thick layer will also help keep the snow above it a bit cooler than a very thin pack, which should mean a late February above average (and way above average in some places) snow pack will preserve better later in the season?

Certainly i've skied glacier runs in April in the heat and the snow as tip top even late in the afternoon. But maybe ice preserves better than snow.

@Raven, I love both, but just drop a layer, a thermal and light jacket is usually perfect for Spring skiing



How long it can take to melt snow is to do with latent energy - it takes loads of energy to melt ice, so it's a very good storage of "cold". It takes 330KJ/kg - which is the same energy it takes to heat water by 78C

As for layers.. even in -15C in Obertauern in January I just had a single thermal and a shell jacket; I just seal all the edges and have a buff etc and am fine. I did wear a second thermal on one day...

12C next week and it will be jacket and trouser vents open and sleeves rolled up. Only get really warm when fighting slushy moguls
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whist there’s seems to be a bit of panic on here with the warm temps there are signs that keep on cropping up of a cool down second week in March . Cooler next week and cold from the North 2nd week has been appearing in more than half the runs on GFS recently and much talk of a SSW out there also .Long way out but I wouldn’t be putting the powder skis away yet .
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@Le Grand Renard,

I don’t have powder ski’s but i like what your saying
Every morning i punch in the La Tania weather forecast page and hit the wiggles section

And yes at the moment they are going lower around the 12th March

But I am not panicking I promise it will be what will be but my track record is so bad.

My last three trips have involved loads of snow then blue skies on the day I leave.

I just want a week of snow then blue skies, and decent temperatures, a bit like this week, I’m so envious of everyone out there now.
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Apologies for grammar

Was using the dictation machine and could be bothered to change
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Apologies for grammar

Was using the dictation machine and could be bothered to change
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ps

Tonight’s wiggles - look bad

Good for Jersey Royal’s

I think thats it for the March - warm and melt -

But i am forever a optimist
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
phillip33 wrote:
Apologies for grammar

Was using the dictation machine and could be bothered to change


Still not working very well? Very Happy
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phillip33 wrote:
Ps

Tonight’s wiggles - look bad

Good for Jersey Royal’s

I think thats it for the March - warm and melt -

But i am forever a optimist


Bad? If you want blue sky as you stated above it looks spot on! Follow the sun as it softens the snow and you’ll have a great time imho
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@Weathercam, I maybe should have clarified piste skiing.
Offpiste / touring has it well publicised challenges atm. Dig your piste skis out!
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If after 2 weeks or more of unbroken sunshine and high temperatures, substantial new snow does fall, does this create a particular avalanche danger?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
La Tania does look bad on Snow-forecast
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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i just looked at the forecast for la tania. It looks a fraction on the warm side but not exactly beach temperatures. It should get down close to zero most nights. The main thing is that there doesn't look to be any rain in the forecast so i imagine the pisteurs are delighted with the forecast. They have about 2m of snow at the bottom of the resort and with that weather forecast they should be able to keep slopes in pretty much perfect condition for the foreseeable future.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The SSW is coming next week - but looks like it will persist the high pressure in Europe for a while. Worth checking back once it's happened as believe it's very difficult to model, so everything could change next week.
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michebiche wrote:
The SSW is coming next week - but looks like it will persist the high pressure in Europe for a while. Worth checking back once it's happened as believe it's very difficult to model, so everything could change next week.


Snow-Forecast.com (which I believe uses GFS) doesn’t know what to do about next week yet. As long as it’s a bit cooler I’ll be happy.

Luckily brought a thin rain jacket with me that I’m using a a shell with a short sleeved t shirt. Bought some gloves in Cervinia that are just Lycra with some grip on the palm. My hands were cooking before. Think I’ll definitely invest in some proper shell pants and jacket (mid range, not exy goretex stuff). For someone from Australia I’m very heat intolerant!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Raven wrote:

Luckily brought a thin rain jacket with me that I’m using a a shell with a short sleeved t shirt. Bought some gloves in Cervinia that are just Lycra with some grip on the palm. My hands were cooking before. Think I’ll definitely invest in some proper shell pants and jacket (mid range, not exy goretex stuff). For someone from Australia I’m very heat intolerant!


I can absolutely recommend that! Bought a non-insulated shell jacket and shell/hiking pants from Scott a couple years ago and I've barely touched my insulated jacket ever since. Shirt + merino midlayer + shell jacket and I'm good for nearly all winter (though I do use lightly insulated pants more often); as someone said above, it really helps to have multiple ventilation zippers and the option to seal all gaps when it's colder. For someone originally from Brazil I'm very heat intolerant too, must be the summer in our hemisphere messing with our hypothalamus.
Curious to see how it'll be in Adelboden tomorrow; I might follow your example and also get thinner gloves.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Skiing all season, and I probably use thin gloves, 65% of the time, also this time of year take the ear muffs off your helmet and maybe the liner, and when it's like this you can just ski in a sweatshirt, though does depend on the wind.

I reckon we've lost well over 50cms of snow from our terrace in under a week, which is south-facing, and temps in the sun, when I've moved the sensor, were in the mid 20's. Overnight the temps have been minus two, though quickly ramp up.

That said I ski toured up to the Col du Galibier yesterday (see Serre thread) and there was still well above average substantial depths on all aspects, though where the sun had been active, on exposed spines, the snow had gone!!

And mate who was with me, and new to touring could not believe how fantastic the spring snow was to ski !

The back end of next week looks unsettled across most forecasts now, but nothing substantial in terms of accumulations.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The Alps very warm just now? TNT said Garmisch was +12C this morning.
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Was 21 degrees in chamonix this week apparently, hottest ever february temperature
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8611 wrote:
Was 21 degrees in chamonix this week apparently, hottest ever february temperature


In the early hours now as we’ve literally only just left February, well above freezing.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICHAMO25?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash
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Interesting. You seem to have hit 19 degrees twice in recent days but back to more bearable temps now.
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How is Alta Badia & Sella Ronde looking from next weeked?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After the two week melt things looking slightly better from the 16th , could this be a turn of luck for me , big dump just before i go , bluebird whilst there.

Probably not, but it’s fun hoping

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=45336&var=201


My Trip to La Tania 23rd March
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Snow&skifan wrote:
The Alps very warm just now? TNT said Garmisch was +12C this morning.

Yes, at least in Adelboden. Spring conditions up to ~1800m (a bit less in north-facing slopes), above 2000m the snow (on slope) feels more "wintery" but also icy at times There's not much off piste to speak of, even at 2000m there's plenty of green patches next to the slopes.
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@Weathercam, Looks like a couple of models are showing a retour d'est? Or at least a Mediterranean low. Praying to the those gods right now!
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Hope not! Cold but clear skies between 14 & 21 March for Tignes is on my wish list
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hi Weathercam, would appreciate your insight as to snow conditions at Serre C, Montgenevre and La Grave at present, now the temps have settled, as looking to come over 6-10th March - any perspective welcome as we loved the off-piste last year - but want to manage expectations given what’s been going on.

Looking to get guided in La Grave if conditions good - so any recommendations welcome. PS we are snowboarder Very Happy . Cheers
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Up to 18c in London and 11c in Chamonix. It should however be stabilising the snow and setting up some extensive spring skiing. GEFS is showing no change in upper or lower air temperature out to mid March.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Trip to La Tania 23rd March

One day later and we have a big difference of opinion between GFS ( American ) and ECMWF ( European) this morning,
obviously I’m rooting for the Euro !!


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=45336&var=201
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Easter skiing is coming early , luckily the snow pack is deep . No doubt cold spell incoming for school holidays you can bet your life on it .
One of my British experts put out his Spring Forecast yesterday , Mild and dryish March , Cool April , Warm May .
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Saharan Sand on the way on Thursday to the Alps
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
timlongs wrote:
Saharan Sand on the way on Thursday to the Alps
although there is no real precipitation forecast so very likely to stay in the sky, rather than hit the snow!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@leggyblonde, @powderburn, see Serre thread
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I'm doing a "let there be snow from the 14th Dance" for Tignes.
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gixxerniknik wrote:
I'm doing a "let there be snow from the 14th Dance" for Tignes.
snow overnight will be fine but need good vis day times that week
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Trip to La Tania 23rd March

GFS and ECMWF are back in bed together this morning.
The Wiggles continue to indicate that there will be some action around the 14th - but with a snowline quite high



https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=45336&var=201
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@phillip33, it's a long way off in forecasting terms, it will change many many times!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@kitenski,

I know - just keeps me entertained
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I know the forecasts can change
I’ve heard it all before but the next few weeks look worrying for the NW Alps

The lack of the normal suspects predicting - polo - adds to my worry - who wants to predict nothing but melt

I’m going to give it one more week ie Friday 12th
Then i might move my booking from La Tania to Val Thorens - i don’t ski a lot or so far , but i would rather be high and enjoy good conditions .

This High Pressure is a pain and it’s not moving


Hope I’m wrong - let’s see what the Wiggles bring in the next few days

Don’t get me wrong - cold beers in a warm sun - heaven - but i like snow on the roofs
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Heading out to Chamonix on the 22nd. I’m hoping for a week of sunshine and light wind. Don’t want to worry whether the lifts are going to be open or not and I want to see the view and take photos. Also I want to ski off piste reasonably safely so some nice stable Spring snow softening in the morning sunshine would be perfect.

Would just need to check that I’ve got enough sun block Laughing
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