 Poster: A snowHead
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Midsommer is over, nights are drawing in, lets get this party stared.
North Atlantic still looking warm but a bit cooler than in 2023 and 2024, so could next winter have a bit more snow at mid altitudes?
and an analysis
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The North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)—especially in the subpolar gyre and tropical North Atlantic—can influence the jet stream and storm tracks, which in turn affect European winter conditions, including snowfall in the Alps.
2023–2024 winters were influenced by record warm Atlantic SSTs, which often:
Strengthen the polar front jet, pushing storms northward.
Promote milder, wetter conditions over western Europe.
Suppress cold air outbreaks and snow at low/mid-altitudes.
If SSTs Are Now Slightly Cooler (but still warm)
More variability in the jet stream becomes possible.
Slightly weaker Atlantic storm tracks may allow:
More cold air incursions into central Europe.
Increased potential for snow, especially in low/mid-elevation areas.
If SST cooling aligns with neutral or negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) or a La Niña pattern, that would enhance chances of a snowier, colder winter across much of Europe.
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As a reminder this was last winter for the whole of France
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The winter season was 0.6 °C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, continuing a streak of above‑normal winters since 2019
December and January were close to average, but February was significantly mild, with anomalies around +1.2 °C
No prolonged cold spells occurred—all regions remained free from what climatologists define as "cold waves" .
The southern half of France and mountainous areas recorded well above-average warmth
December was dry, January was very wet, and February was about 25% drier than usual
Overall precipitation for the winter matched the long-term average, though with contrasts:
February had persistent low clouds in the northwest, Lyon area, and Mediterranean coast—20–30% below typical sunshine levels .
Across the whole winter, the northwest was over 20% below average sunshine, while the southwest to northeast regions were near normal or slightly above (+10%) .
On average, national sunshine levels returned to normal after a gloomy autumn
Here are key figures for Auvergne‑Rhône‑Alpes
Temperature anomaly: +1.3 °C
Precipitation: +7%
PACA: +1.5 °C and –19% precipitation
Snow coverage was generally normal, but in high-altitude areas .
A heavy snowfall event occurred in the Massif Central, notable for its intensity .
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- meteofrance.fr https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2025-les-bilans-climatiques
and for Europe
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A joint report from the German Weather Service (DWD), MeteoSwiss, and GeoSphere Austria indicates that the winter half‑year (Nov 2024–Apr 2025) was 1.6 °C warmer than the 1991–2020 average across alpine regions—+1.9 °C at high elevation, +1.4 °C in the valleys.
Sunshine was notable, with 9 % more hours at low altitude and 16 % more up high, reflecting many high-pressure systems.
Precipitation was well below average: –32 % on the northern flank and –28 % on the southern side.
Snow cover suffered: particularly at low and mid elevations, though some high-altitude pockets (e.g. Valais, Engadin) experienced near-normal depths. In contrast, lower mountain zones —like Zugspitze—recorded record low snow depths. Mid-February 2025 brought a fresh pulse of 20–50 cm of snow, rejuvenating skiing conditions across the Alps and Pyrenees—especially in France, Italy, and Austria.
Regional ski reports note mixed conditions: some high-altitude resorts enjoyed ample powder, but many lower-altitude sites struggled. The season was “buzzing” in January, largely thanks to fresh, quality snow.
Swiss and Austrian reports describe predominantly dry winter weather with intermittent snowfall: light snow at elevation, rain or sleet in valleys, leading to sharply varied snowpack. Crans‑Montana struggled, while higher-elevation areas like Verbier saw 30 cm of fresh snow over a week.
Alpine hydropower production fell over 30 %, with Austria losing 44 % compared to 2024—highlighting risks to water and energy sectors.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| davidof wrote: |
| Midsommer is over |
You posted 3 days into the future in that case.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@davidof, Thanks saved me a job 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Meteorological summer will always begins on 1 June !!??
Astronomical summer began on 21 June !!??
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Le Grand Renard, I thought you might be on holiday
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Due a colder one so fingers crossed equally it’s going to be the winter in my 60th year and I’ve always been lucky so take from that what you want
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Good that the new thread has started on a (slightly) optimistic note. I hope your prediction (OK, hint) of a better winter than the last two bears out.
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First snow of our new thread expected in the Alps tomorrow, keep an eye on the webcams
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Dare I say interesting start to Southern Hemisphere season
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Cairngorm summit weather station is forecast to reach 21c on the MetO weather app for Sunday. That would put it close to it’s all time record of
21.3°C on 15 June 2006.
Unfortunately it’s currently broken.
It’s all time lowest temp is apparently only -14c in 2018 which compares to an all time low in Aviemore of -24c in 1995.
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3390
I was actually in Aviemore that day 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Peter S, yikes !
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You know it makes sense.
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Moving along the similar theme@Peter S, I was talking to a chap in Glenmore Lodge about 1 month ago. Earlier this year he said they (Glenmore) had a temperature swing from -17°c to plus 12 the following day, quite extraordinary. No surprise the snow can go from fab to invisible in a day.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Rogerdodger, that's nothing 
Col du Galibier last week 30+° (maybe more), Monday night -4 and dusting of snow.
Been brassic even in the Valley last couple of days, though ironically left there at 05:00 and now on the ferry heading back to a UK heat wave evidently.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@BobinCH, Grand Combin?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ADH yesterday morning after the big storm
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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The med is boiling, maybe wont' affect the Northern Alps but it does seem to affect the sudflank.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Crikey 14 days reaching 30c, I don’t think we’ve ever had that even as far south as here ! 
If the trend in the graph above continues and the Northern Atlantic stays close to the mean then presumably any polar maritime air, starting over the Artic or Canada has a better chance of arriving as snow over the hills. The downside is that anything with a remotely southerly origin is likely to be unusually warm and harmful, even at high altitude. Hopefully things will drop back nearer to average, more generally, during the Autumn.
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Cold weather continues in the Alps on Monday 28 July 2025, with snow above 2,600 metres. Here the Plan Glacier refuge at an altitude of 2,730 metres in Saint-Gervais-les-Bains.
The Tour de France had a miserable few days in the Alps with cold and rain.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@davidof, good to hear
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Windy yesterday. 134mph gust recorded on Cairngorm.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Now that it has finally rained and cooled down briefly in france I am already staring at colourful graphs looking for anything remotely autumnal.
Looking back to last winter first and the long range forecasts at the time....
Dec 24 multi model forecast for Dec Jan Feb period vs actual......was a long way off, with high pressure expected to be centred west of france, but ended up over northern europe
 
Jan 25 multi model forecast for Jan Feb Mar period vs actual......pretty good really, but the Azores-Iberian low ended up closer to Spain, shifting the euro high NE
 
Usual caveats with 3 month anomaly charts....they don't tell you anything about short term weather events. But can tell that last winter was generally dry across northern europe, with a lot of precipitation coming via the SW lows, often with a high snowline, and very few northerly outbreaks due to the blocking high to our NE.
Here are the individual months, Dec to Apr.....season started well, ended well, with only a handful of good dumps in between (NW alps)...each region different of course. But just looking at the anomalies, can see why Dec was good (high pressure centred west of france), and March was good for SW alps I'd guess....also the only section of the alps, across 5 months that recorded below average pressure (blue shading). Overall it was another winter dominated by above average pressure in the alps.
    
Some of the popular long term drivers this season:
Solar output is strong, near the expected peak for cycle 25, heading to the next cycle low around 2030. I was of the impression that solar min was more likely to increase chances of northern blocking (greenland - iceland - scandinavia), based on a lot of analog work by Gav's weather channel. But I've just checked with my AI buddy and it seems that northern blocking is actually more associated with solar max in theory. In any case it often depends on the state of other drivers, it's never black and white. But let's put it down as a positive.
ENSO heading towards cold-nuetral phase into early winter, or possible weak La Nina. Again as far as I know, weak cold is better than strong cold, so that's a positive.
QBO is due to flip into the easterly phase this winter, which is associated with a weaker polar vortex. Another 2 positives.
So it's a full house....what could possibly go wrong. Well those forecasts can change....and the tiny area of the alps may not be impacted by bigger patterns. But you'd rather have this set of drivers than say strong El Nino, westerly QBO, strong PV etc
I'll have a look at ex tropical storm Erin soon....heading somewhere SW of Ire....could impact last week of Aug
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You know it makes sense.
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Thanks Polo, very much looking forward to your weather information over the next few months. Strangely my Bramley apple tree is having its best year in about the last decade despite the ridiculously dry spring/summer. I'm thinking a few apfelstrudel might be in order to get me in the mood for Austria in Jan!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Early ripening and leaf fall in the UK due to the heat and lack of precipitation
Set to be the driest and warmest Summer in Wales since 1976
Winter 76/77 was cold with decent snowfall
Fingers crossed
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Poster: A snowHead
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@japes1275, yeah I didn’t water mine enough, pear tree died in July, figs are nothing on last year…..but my mate down the road with an irrigation system has a bumper crop 
@Mike Pow, You’d like to think there will be a rebalancing, and the little ice age had many very hot summers….so…..
On the rebalancing front, tropical storms transfer heat / energy from the tropics to northern latitudes, which are already relatively warm (SST’s north of Iceland). I think it’s the location of the warm anomalies that matter, rather than whether the whole of the North Atlantic is above average. So if the middle part of Atlantic is warmest then that increases the temperature gradient (vs north) and you get stronger jet stream / polar vortex (not good), but if the far northern parts are warmest like now, then the opposite is likely.
La Niña also helps to weaken the vortex, and has higher likelihood of sudden stratospheric warmings….but we know how fickle and prolonged those can be (in recent years).
Near term, still on track for a larger unsettled spell post BH weekend. But the UKMO model is the only one not showing the trough moving east across uk / northern France. Always fascinating to me when you have say 6 models consistently showing one outcome, and 1 or 2 models consistently showing something completely different, at less than a weeks range. Either the rogue model has a sudden change of heart or the whole suite blends into meh.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 22-08-25 20:05; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo, So more tropical storms/hurricanes in a season is potentially good? What letter storm name do we need to get to? As I see we are just finished with Erin.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@afterski, that's what I have been led to believe, from various sources / commentary, analogs etc
But none of these drivers are 'deterministic' on their own, the more you read the more complicated it gets.....chaotic systems, where several large scale drivers combined have correlation with certain outcomes (eg -AO/-NAO)....but none of the teleconnections can really be isolated.
Here's a technical blurb from Grok.....the answer, as always, is.....it depends
"An active Atlantic tropical storm season increases the likelihood of a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase in the subsequent European winter through teleconnections involving atmospheric and oceanic processes. Here’s how it works:
Tropical Storm Activity and Atmospheric Heating: Intense tropical storm seasons release significant latent heat into the atmosphere due to enhanced convection and storm formation. This heating can perturb the tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation, generating Rossby waves—large-scale atmospheric waves that propagate poleward and influence mid-latitude weather patterns.
ENSO Influence: A key driver is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are often associated with La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. La Niña reduces vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, favoring tropical storm formation. Simultaneously, La Niña alters global atmospheric circulation, including the jet stream, which can weaken the polar vortex and promote high-pressure blocking patterns over the Arctic—a hallmark of a negative AO/NAO phase.
Rossby Wave Trains and Jet Stream Modulation: The heat and moisture from tropical storms can amplify Rossby wave trains, which disrupt the mid-latitude jet stream. This disruption can lead to a southward shift of storm tracks and a weaker, wavier jet stream, conducive to negative AO conditions. These patterns favor high-pressure systems over the Arctic and Greenland, which block the typical westerly flow and allow colder air to spill into Europe.
Seasonal Lag and Ocean Memory: The influence of an active hurricane season persists into winter due to oceanic and atmospheric memory. For example, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic, modified by hurricane activity, can influence atmospheric circulation patterns months later, reinforcing conditions for a negative AO/NAO.
Statistical studies and reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5) show a negative correlation between Atlantic hurricane activity and European windstorm frequency, with La Niña winters often linked to fewer and weaker extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, consistent with a negative AO/NAO phase. However, this relationship is probabilistic, not absolute, and can be modulated by other factors like the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)."
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Atlantic sea temperatures are just about at their peak now and should start to drop soon. They are above average although the western North Atlantic is not far above average.
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yep, some cooler water to the west....possibly a good spot for it as many systems exist the US eastern seaboard and warmer waters there would fire up the jet stream.
I need to look more into how different area's may impact the weather here.
Couple of things....can see La Nina building nicely, but the very warm north pacific is a concern as it can direct systems across North America, leading to westerly flow into europe (+NAO). Other factors at play of course, but have read that most of our cold winters also have a cooler north pacific.
However the negative IOD signal is good....with colder water in the western Indian ocean vs the australia end. Don't really know how this one works but it's looking like a strong negative signal is developing, and like La Nina, I've read it has a cold bias for europe....global atmospheric circulation stuff.
Another interesting area is the west coast of Africa being colder than normal (like an atlantic la nina).....so you'd expect a quieter hurriance season in theory, but NOAA is predicting above average....so again there must be other factors.
One more unusual piece I read was about the high level of russian volcanoes this year. Important because they happened at high lattitudes, and therefore have easier access to the stratosphere....as the troposphere is much thicker nearer the equator. Again this disruption to the strat is supposedly linked with weaker polar vortex, -NAO.
Near term, looks like 3 areas of low pressure NW europe over the next week....28th, 31st and 3rd (ex-tropical Fernand).....but none of them can penetrate the large high pressure block to the east....so I'd guess the atlantic will back off and more settled weather will return soon after.
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@davidof, Yes for some odd reason I keep a close eye on Oz they have been having a good season compared to recent history
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The western North Atlantic has taken a significant drop in temperature, well below the long term average. Perhaps a knock on implication of significant world wide heating elsewhere ?
The whole Atlantic north of the equator has taken a dip closer to the long term average as well. Perhaps better news this Autumn?
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlsp
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@Peter S, good spot, probably accounts for the chilly end to August 
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