 Poster: A snowHead
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Out of interest, how does the start of the 2022/2023 season compare to previous years? I've not really tuned in this early in the season before, but it looks a bit mixed so far.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| ChrisP71 wrote: |
| Out of interest, how does the start of the 2022/2023 season compare to previous years? I've not really tuned in this early in the season before, but it looks a bit mixed so far. |
Much warmer and dryer - we’ve had a true Indian Summer out here. After a cold blast this weekend, it’s warming up again and looks like it’s going to be towards the end of Nov until it gets colder which is 2 or 3 weeks later than last few seasons. |
I feared as much. We've had a similar pattern in the UK - after a very warm end to October it sort of felt a bit like November for the first few days but now it's gone warm and wet again.
Trying to get my son into skiing at the moment, but I do worry that if I succeed I'll get him hooked on a sport that's going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to take part in as snowy places become fewer and further between.
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| ChrisP71 wrote: |
Trying to get my son into skiing at the moment, but I do worry that if I succeed I'll get him hooked on a sport that's going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to take part in as snowy places become fewer and further between. |
Even more reason to enjoy it while he/you can IMO
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@ChrisP71, seasons are, by nature, very variable. Can’t read anything into one year.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| ChrisP71 wrote: |
Trying to get my son into skiing at the moment, but I do worry that if I succeed I'll get him hooked on a sport that's going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to take part in as snowy places become fewer and further between. |
Even more reason to enjoy it while he/you can IMO |
Yeah, I've got some great photos of him on his sledge when we had The Beast from The East a few years back. I keep meaning to get some of them framed in case they're the last reminder of having conditions like that in England (although that in itself was a bit of an anomaly...)
| under a new name wrote: |
| @ChrisP71, seasons are, by nature, very variable. Can’t read anything into one year. |
True, but there does seem to be a worrying trend emerging. I didn't ski for about 10 years and got back into it in 2020. I was dismayed to find it raining at resort level when we arrived in early February and people were telling me that's not uncommon these days. Prior to that, the only other time I'd seen rain in the Alps was in April, I think.
But I do appreciate it's variable. I've long harboured an ambition to go skiing in Scotland. I had to abandon a trip the one week I could get up there last season, but 12 months before that - while everything was shut for lockdown - they'd had snow up to the roof of the Cairngorm visitor centre. Fingers crossed it'll be more of the latter once this season gets going.
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To state the obvious. Early season conditions have a big impact on early season. Beyond that depends on what happens. So what I’m saying is that I would not be tempted to read too much into what November conditions mean for the rest of the season. As for the last 10 years I’m happy to report they have been mainly (bar lockdowns) filled with plenty of good skiing conditions.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| ChrisP71 wrote: |
Trying to get my son into skiing at the moment, but I do worry that if I succeed I'll get him hooked on a sport that's going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to take part in as snowy places become fewer and further between. |
Even more reason to enjoy it while he/you can IMO |
Nice pics BobinCH! And I agree when the goods are good. Go get those goods!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@ChrisP71, "raining at resort level" - uh, yeah, but what was resort level? rained pretty often at 1,000m in my first seasons in the late 80s ...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Day off yesterday so went out on the bike near the mountains. Beautiful day, warm & sunny (warm enough to sit in the sun just in a t shirt for lunch) and any snow that had fallen over the weekend had gone from the mountains. Looks like there will be a small amount of snow on Wednesday evening at the highest elevations but other than that for the next ten days mild & dry (partly föhn conditions). There is a forecast of cooler temperatures and some snow from around the 18th on the latest GFS (even seen a suggestion of snow in Munich that weekend) but as ever too far ahead to take too much notice. Might be a good idea to get the winter tyres on though just in case.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snowed down to 1400 meters on Friday here in Bramberg; even saw a bit of a flurry at village level. Now though the snow line is rapidly receding. Probably at 1700m right now. We should have a high of 15C today
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Of others have mentioned there has been a pattern over recent GFS runs showing a cooling in the second half of the month
However, the cool-down is pretty much all still in FI (+192) and the far end of GFS does have a tendency towards over amplification (both extent and duration). Still it’s been cropping up a bit recently so let’s see…
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You know it makes sense.
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Previous day 10 mean charts look reasonably accurate for continued atlantic trough / euro high for the next week, though with more snow tomorrow to 2300-2000m in the west. However from 10th Nov to 15th the pattern shifts slightly, with 3 waves now visiible around high pressure areas over north pacific, mid atlantic and scandi by 16th. So it's still a fairly meridonal jet, with low pressure reaching mid lattitudes, just not including the alps so far.
GFS mean 16th
GEM mean 16th
ECM mean 16th
Even at day 7-8 (above) there is significant disagreement across the mean anomalies. GFS as usual is the most progressive, meaning it brings an atlantic low further E / SE into europe. It shows signs of a cross polar high forming, where the pacific high tries to link with the scandi high, pulling it further north and allowing cold air to fill back under the high into central europe.
But the ECM is very different, no polar link, scandi high sinks into central europe cutting off most of the cold potential from the east and atlantic influence from the NW.
GEM sort of in the middle.
Models often underestimate the resilience of a euro / scandi high, so would be wary of any charts showing the atlantic barrelling thru at the first attempt. It's a huge block, so the best hope is that it moves north to allow low's to sneak under, but these undercuts fail 9 times out of 10. Second way out is for the atlantic lows to flatten the scandi high and after a westerly zonal period we might get some amplification of atlantic heights (towards greenland) allowing a classic NW-SE jet into the alps.
GFS shows AO weakening mid month due to polar heights, but not supported by ECM as above. NAO still looks slightly positive until we see a proper change in the pattern. So might be limited to some quick heavy showers above 2000m. Next few runs will see some consensus forming, but baring a huge slice of luck, there's not a lot happening this side of mid month.
Finally looking at the extended ECM weeklies, the high sets up over UK / north europe well into December. Which is great as these 3-5 week charts are always wrong.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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HOW EXCITING, STOP PRESS !
For those who like a LTF here’s France Meteo for Haute Savoie and it’s rather favourable from December onwards
https://www.meteo-haute-savoie.fr/tendances-saisonnieres-france/?fbclid=IwAR3aiYj8Kc530zzzB6YBWkJfCpHxBrcM-so4S3zfvGMy77WFLgt84l3t_jo
In summary, winter 2022/2023 promises to be quite disrupted, especially from December. These conditions therefore promise to be rather favorable for good snow cover in the mountains as well as for the filling of the water tables in the plain.
In terms of temperatures, after a month of November that was still very mild, they are expected to be cooler from December with values fairly close to normal and therefore rather wintry.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Rob Mackley, would take that.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Rob Mackley, I assume an element of tongue in cheek but nice to see.....one of these LRF's is going to be more right than wrong. We had 'pretty snow free' December from ECM / UKMO on the last page...but what do they know. Haute Savoie notable call on just the 8th Nov that December will be more disturbed than previous months....long way to go in November and it's already delivered 2 snowfalls in the west. So they are at opposite ends to the leading models, which both suggest high pressure to dominate northern europe throughout as opposed to sitting over Spain.
Had a look at the recently posted Oct ECM snow depth anomaly chart for December. Basically has the whole of the alps at -2meters of water equivalent snow. So assume that means about 20cm less than the 1993-2016 average. That might be a problem for low lying resorts, say 1200 in the NW, which has an average Dec base of just 35cm. Above 1800m though that number is closer to a meter so those -ve snow depth graphs look worse (overly dramatic) than they are in my view.
But is gets worse, that ECM seasonal was updated a few days to Nov start date. If you are looking for trends, then this is not a good one for winter 22/23
Sep
Oct
Nov
We've gone from a nuetral pressure pattern over central europe to a high block, centered over UK / NW france. Positve AO signal, with a ring of high pressure seemingly right across all mid lattitudes.
Interesting 40year global skill score from ECM here....looks neutral over the alps and much of europe, while ENSO and other tropics are positive. So it's all to play for really.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_roc_skill_score_2mtm?base_time=201712010000&stats=ROCT33&valid_time=201801010000
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Wed 9-11-22 12:01; edited 2 times in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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That’s the sort of long term forecast I like!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, we posted at the same time. I was referring to @Rob Mackley, post 
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The last three GFS runs suggest some reasonable snowfall mid next week for parts of the Italian/French/Swiss alps, could all disappear in the next run but could be good for an early season visit to Zermatt
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@munich_irish, this could be great if doesn’t produce to much foehn for North of the Alpine Ridge
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Got a week booked in Val Gardena on Dec 10th... Starting to get a little worried... 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
ChrisP71
user
Posts: 22
BobinCH wrote:
ChrisP71 wrote:
Out of interest, how does the start of the 2022/2023 season compare to previous years? I've not really tuned in this early in the season before, but it looks a bit mixed so far.
Much warmer and dryer - we’ve had a true Indian Summer out here. After a cold blast this weekend, it’s warming up again and looks like it’s going to be towards the end of Nov until it gets colder which is 2 or 3 weeks later than last few seasons.
I feared as much. We've had a similar pattern in the UK - after a very warm end to October it sort of felt a bit like November for the first few days but now it's gone warm and wet again.
Trying to get my son into skiing at the moment, but I do worry that if I succeed I'll get him hooked on a sport that's going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to take part in as snowy places become fewer and further between
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Chris, I took up skiing 20 years ago, I have been lucky enough to do a lads 4 days trip the end of January and family trip in March when they were allowed out of school and now Easter pretty much every year other than 1 year for covid. Throw in a few work trips and I think I have managed around 40 trips in 20 years.
I all that time I have only ever had 1 trip which was mostly unskiable, Bereges la mongie in January about 15 years ago was like summer, 5-6 icy man made pistes in the morning, sunbathing in the PM. However, in March that year I went to Les Arc and skied powder for a week.
The only other trip that came close to that was Chatel about 12-13 years ago, Chatel was grass with 2 tiny pistes open, we went to Linga 2 minutes down the road and the whole of avoriaz, crosset etc was 100% open, a lot of man made snow but a fantastic few days of skiing in the sun.
I have also been away in April when it has been 30+ degrees and found more than enough skiing, icy in the morning, slushy in the PM, but still great fun on a board and 90% of everything open.
My advise it to get your kids out there ASAP, go high if you can, Val Thoren, Val D'isere, and many others and you will have as much skiing as you can handle.
Going from memory the last 6-7 years has been immense, all this climate change is making things wonky and can be good for skiing (so I read somewhere, clueless about it myself)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I'm booked to Ski Chinaillon (Aravis) with the family 27th December for a week. We had such a good time last Christmas (Covid testing aside) that I re-booked straight away.. The parallels with the late start the left it bare in 2015/16 have me nervously checking forecasts and webcams daily though:)
Keeping everything crossed there's something to ski on come December's end.
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I have friends and family coming to ski at Kitzbühel and Saalbach in mid December. I hope we’ll have some snow up top by then
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You know it makes sense.
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15c today in Chamonix and Innsbruck. 16c tomorrow! 7c on the summit of Ben Nevis.
Cooling off a bit next week thankfully. The saturated tropical air has meant a wet Autumn in southern England so far.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Looking at the weather next week makes me feel much better about my December trip. Cooling down rapidly and snowing in the Dolomites - at the very least will be able to get the snow cannons going...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ive just woken up after my summer hibernation, back to my favourite topic on Snowheads
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Blimey. Was that set to affect snow cannon use? Hadn’t even crossed my mind.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Skeeezo wrote: |
| Blimey. Was that set to affect snow cannon use? Hadn’t even crossed my mind. |
TBH I don’t really know - it seemed to be pretty liberal for “professional use” - there were lots of bikes being washed with hosepipes during the MTB worlds in Les Gets in August (unlike the Yorkshire cyclo-cross races this winter where they’ve banned power washers!).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Some proper cold building to the east while models keep backtracking from attempts to shift the Scandi high, ECM latest at 168-192 hrs. The mean pressure charts now showing the pattern should last until at least the 19th, with average 1500m temp dropping to zero. Mix of polar maritime NW flow and maybe easterly if the high holds up.
UKMO / ECM are the best at modeling this set up, will be milder SW flow mixed in at the beginning but overall it still looks promising for next week.
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As far as I can tell all the commercial ski areas rely on artificial snow making these days. Getting sufficient depth down at the start of the season is probably the highest priority for the resort managers. A decent fall of natural snow helps of course 
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We don't open until December 8, but I'm sure it could be 100% open by Christmas and there is a realistic chance of that happenening by opening day. Considering that the last few years we're had to download for a week, this is great.
https://skiwhitefish.roundshot.com/summit/#/
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I’ve been talking to locals in Samoens who are saying it’s going to be a good year for snow based on the way the flowers have been facing this Autumn. True.
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FAQ
