 Poster: A snowHead
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well hoping GFS has this wrong and we end up with more snow further west !! It's only 1 bad run, albeit we are now only 1-3 days away !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Some cold temperatures starting to crop up on second week of February (12 below seasonal average).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@nozawaonsen, if we get some of these packets of cold siberian air which are popping up on the models at the moment, what will these bring for the alps? Looks just (very)cold and dry to me but could there be some precipitation involved? I'm thinking if the lows go south (genoa low?) then could be something for East and South but not much hope for North and West.
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so gutted that what looked like a bit of a game changer, has drifted away.. Still time for something to happen!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Latest Gfs and also uk met office for Zermatt, shows a warm Sunday, cooling rapidly with overnight snow, and clear Monday and the rest of the week, but cold! -15 degrees in the village. Pretty close to perfect for a weeks ski holiday.
Very promising.
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Windy but should be amazing conditions in tree runs in the lower East Austrian resorts
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Salzburg and Dachstein resorts now expecting between 1m - 1.5m in the next few days with snow line down to between 400-600m. Fingers crossed!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Flying to Munich on friday and hard to decide where to go. Zillertal, Saalbach-Hinterglemm, Zauchensee, Gastein...it's not easy with this forecast 
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Saalbach would actually be good as there's loads of low gentle meadows which should be accessible if higher lifts don't open and low gradient in terms of avalanche risk?
That's assuming it isn't too far West. Personally I always head to the epicentre so Zauchensee / Dachstein.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Thumb, Fieberbrunn if you’re after off piste. Perfect for tree skiing in a dump. I’m not familiar with Dachstein though.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Doesn't look like much is on the horizon for the Isere mountains before the middle of the month, at least. At mid levels things are still pretty thin. This is where we are at at 1350 meters in the chartreuse at the moment. The cold has at least meant that the 30cm of cover is hard frozen where it has been skied. You need to be heading above 2000m to find comfortable conditions. The cold at least means on piste they can make snow so should be ok for the holidays although it looks almost tropical for the coming weekend.
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Thanks @8611 and @BertieG
Making short five day trip, so lift closures because TOO much snow wouldn’t ne nice. But Saalbach/Fieberbrunn look quite promising with heights. Haven’t been there ever, I’m boring and usually always go to Zillertal. Zillertal seems to be on borderline where dump really hits.
But one thing seems quite sure, it’s powder instead of boilerplate
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You know it makes sense.
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@Thumb, Bergfex forecast for Mayrhofen looks great for the next few days. I'm heading out there in a few weeks and I'm pleased to be getting this dump now as it should mean a better base.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some resorts not far from here in northern Styria are reporting 100 cm new snow, and it‘s still snowing. 
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heading the France val cenis on 11th feb so frustrating to see all the snow going elsewhere and non for France. Looks a bit like there could be a small amount over the next few days week for southern French alps retour d'est maybe? but modest amount. Anyone know if this looks on the cards yet?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looks to me like very little (maybe no) snow for Monterosa any time soon. A very warm weekend followed by very cold nest week, then the longer term forecast shows it warming again just in time for my arrival. AAaghhhhh. I like it cold at least, preferably good snow cover for some day tours/off-piste but I can accept that not happening. Why is it always so warm for the Feb half-term week?
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@DB, are they opening? I couldn't believe the forecast but it was hard to see the sweet spot to be able to actually ski it
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| 8611 wrote: |
| @DB, are they opening? I couldn't believe the forecast but it was hard to see the sweet spot to be able to actually ski it |
The place that was quoting 100cm is a small resort called Aflenz. They didn’t manage to open today. The weather is really windy at the moment and wind speeds up to 150 km/h are forecast for tomorrow. It probably won’t open until Sunday.
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| DB wrote: |
| Some resorts not far from here in northern Styria are reporting 100 cm new snow, and it‘s still snowing. |
Salzburg24 reporting that some major roads are experiencing snow-related closure with many others having mandatory snow chain fitting (without wishing to start a snow chain diversion). This relates to Salzburgerland and Salzkammergut resorts. Current weather front expected to last until Monday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| JDgoesskiing wrote: |
| heading the France val cenis on 11th feb so frustrating to see all the snow going elsewhere and non for France. Looks a bit like there could be a small amount over the next few days week for southern French alps retour d'est maybe? but modest amount. Anyone know if this looks on the cards yet? |
I'm not at VC until Easter, so not relevant for me just yet, but looks like a little is incoming for Saturday 11th, so it may freshen things up for you. Have a brilliant trip.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Any thoughts on the snow feature that the GFS is showing over half term in Tignes? Euro is dry, and I am hoping it is wrong 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@mwhalber, thoughts would be that anything for half term is too far out to take seriously at this point.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @mwhalber, thoughts would be that anything for half term is too far out to take seriously at this point. |
Errr its only a week away? Looking dry and relatively warm.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Pyramus, over half term implies it’s not just the first day of half term. So yesterday that would have been 7-14 days out, which is generally too far out to take that seriously. It’s a little hard to be more specific because I’m not sure what the snow feature being referred to is without more detail. But if it you are indeed correct and the outlook for 7-14 days remains dry and relatively warm then it will have been prudent not to take have taken the snow feature seriously.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Don't have great deal of understanding of weather systems. General consensus appears to be more likely relatively cool and dry for first half term week no new snow (sadly)?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@James77, read the two posts above yours!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@scottishandy, thanks! That's what I was generally thinking as well...some small disturbances possible riding up from the med to give some snow here and there would be OK with me...
Does ECM handle these types of things generally better than GFS as it takes into account topography? Wondering about how things have validated in the past.
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ECM is well regarded as the best model for overall pattern of pressure/heights but is also well known for overdoing snow predications further out. In reality experience says 24 hours for even close to accurate snow amount predictions.
The problem is that a 100mile change in "pattern" is seen as very minor in model skill judgement, it can make a massive difference to what you experience in Avoriaz, Aosta, Austria etc etc.
Minor features or shortwaves in techy speak, are not easy (possible?) to model in advance (more than 5ish days) and it is these that both affect local weather and can have a large effect on the longwave pattern.
An interesting example is the snow forecast for tonight. It's been in the forecast for a week or so to a greater or lesser extent due to the longwave pattern directing flow from a more Nrly direction. What has changed has been the E/W extent of this (most pushed way east and hence Austria's dumping). Tonights snow forecast however has upgraded in the last 24 hrs (to 5cm) for Avoriaz but none for cental Swiss and east! This is down to a small wiggle in the isobars evident on pic below just below on Italy/France border. Note small area of green, lower heights which also helps precip.
GFS 6z showing more snow for central Switzerland, so we shall see which model did this better.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| scottishandy wrote: |
Models are (now) pretty consistent on significant heights and high pressure across UK and Nrth Europe. Alps hopefully keeping a coolish but dry continental flow, always a chance of small features popping up giving some nice cold snow but not really possible to predict more than a couple of days out.
Example chart for 11th Feb
Beyond that, either continuation of the same, high pressure takes more charge and sinks south bringing settled but warmer (1st chart GFS) or hints at 10 days out of some weather (cool and snow) arriving from West or North West (2nd chart ECM).
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Just wondering if both GFS & ECM models are suggesting dry settled weather for Andorra for Half-term?
There's a bit of a low in W Med in an easterly flow on the ECM map for 11th, but is this too far South?
High Pressure centred on Biscay on GFS for 15th, but irregular isobars further South.
ECM on 15th has the westerly Atlantic flow with some disruptions across Iberia.
I'm looking for HT week 11th-18th Feb. I know it's probably too early for anything too precise being 6+ days away, but any thoughts anyone?
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@luigi, same. It’s been a while (3 weeks?) since any serious snow in the Tarentaise, and I imagine that the pistes could do with a natural top up, especially before they get very busy!
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Right now there is nothing I’ve seen in any outlook that suggests significant snow that week.
But as has been pointed out above that week is also too far out to take any output that seriously.
Obviously high pressure can set up and stick around for a while (kind of my base assumption for that week I guess), but equally things can shift surprisingly quickly. So for now I’d say there’s nothing to suggest fresh snowfall, but that could change. If I was packing for half term right now I’d probably be reaching for my shades, rather than my powder skies, but let’s see.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| If I was packing for half term right now I’d probably be reaching for my shades, rather than my powder skies, but let’s see. |
Yep currently looking like T shirt weather over half term week. I suppose it's good for the kids not having to deal with blizzard conditions but doubt there will much fun to be had off piste..
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It’s amazing. Every half-term, no matter where I go the warm weather finds me. Cold this week but no snow to talk about. THEN forecast for Champoluc next week is showing 9 degrees, with even the top being above freezing. And every time I look it gets worse! No snow, warm weather, I seem to have had a long run of bad luck! It really annoys me, I don’t expect great conditions every year but this is getting ridiculous! Arghhhhh
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Latest GFS run suggests some snow but right at the end of the forecast period (around 19.02) so not really relevant. For St Anton it looks to be mild rather than warm. Pleasant piste skiing for the hordes, perfect party weather for the terrace at the Moose!
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