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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Still waiting for significant snow around Grenoble in the mountains. Both Monday and Tuesday were orange alerts for snow but very little in the mountains. Largely unskiable below 1800 meters off piste (note: okay on piste due to a man made base if you are heading to one of the local resorts). Tony Parker must be regretting buying a ski area in the Vercors for half a billion euros !

Another Orange alert today, maybe this is the good one? But we still in an "start of season" type snowpack at lower altitudes (base of pistes).



This illustrates the situation from the Meteo France monitoring station at the Col de Porte at 1360 meters. Dashed line is an "average" season. Red is 2022/23. Other lines are quintiles. So the current situation is above the worst 20% of seasons.

A little futher north things in the Bauges range are looking reasonable now with 60cm total snowdepth at 1600 meters.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@BobinCH, Chamonix on Friday won't be too bad either, enjoy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Medium term modelling starting to peek some interest again.
The current cold plunge looks to end with an LP in the med and heights building over N europe (UK high becoming pretty significant). Slack continental feed for the alps leads to dry and cool /cold condition. LP to the S may throw up some snow from time to time.
Going forward we really want the UK high to lift NE for a cold easterly or NW for a snowy Nrly/NWrly.
ECM at 192hrs moves it west a bit allowing some cold air to drop through Scandi - pretty good.



GFS similar but a bit less West.



GEM pick of the bunch tonight (at 240), as it was yesterday. Arctic high - tick. Greenland High - tick. Cold trough dropping through UK - tick. LP over central Europe allowing trough to continue dropping - tick



All this plus rumours of a SSW which may or may not keep things cold through February.
Enjoy the next few days those who are in the alps. Scotland is great atm so i'll enjoy that until half term!
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This morning’s 00z ensembles continue to suggest some potential (nothing wild at this stage) in FI, more for the east end than the west end of the Alps.

Hochkönig



Chamonix

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Improvement in the situation at the mid altitudes in the southern part of the Northern French Alps yesterday - just in time for the Grand Odyssey dog sled race to blast through



Weather should be a bit more settled for the next week, hopefully with cold to form a solid base.
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@davidof, the Grand Odyssey sounds like an intriguing event!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, the Grand Odyssey sounds like an intriguing event!


someone started a thread about it but I haven't seen any replied. They were sledding over the cross country trails in the Chartreuse yesterday - so I expect the cross country skiers will have lots of dog poo to contend with as huskies / sled dogs produce huge amounts of "exhaust".

Anyway conditions should be good for anyone skiing this weekend and probably okay for the February holidays.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
davidof wrote:
Improvement in the situation at the mid altitudes in the southern part of the Northern French Alps yesterday - just in time for the Grand Odyssey dog sled race to blast through



Weather should be a bit more settled for the next week, hopefully with cold to form a solid base.

What years are those other lines? Especially the biggest one?
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Models starting to line up on a dip towards the end of the month and more significant cold snaps throughout February in Europe

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Some low temperatures in the Tarentaise this morning reported by Meteo Tarentaise wrap up warm when skiing .

Eh oh! TEMPERATURE RISES THIS FRIDAY MORNING AT 6AM: Eh oh!

As predicted, it's cold again tonight, we're waking up at the earliest at 6am tonight:

-9.1°C in Albertville (314m)
-12.5°C in Beaufort sur Doron (1030m)
-12.8°C in Granier (1260m)
-12.8°C in Montvalezan (1270m)
-13.0°C in Bourg Saint Mauritius (865m)
-13.2°C in Celliers (1924m)
-14.1°C in Sainte Foy de Tarantaise (1582m)
-15.7°C at Pass du Petit St Bernard (2188m)
-16.0°C at the level of Grand Parei (2240m)
-17.1°C in Val d'Isère village (1850m)
-17.3°C at Chevril level (2560m)
-17.4°C at La Plagne (2120m)
-18.1°C in Chevril (2869m)
-18.5°C in Saint Martin de Belleville (1443m)
-18.5°C over Pralognan domain (2419m)
-19.0°C in Bellecôte (3000m)
-19.3°C in Val D'Isère Joseray (1850m)
-19.5°C in Val Thorens (2277m)
-19.7°C at Mass (2800m)
-20.0°C at Pisaillas Glacier (3119m)
-24.3°C in Tignes (2084m)

Source : Roma & Weather

Regarding the felt we rise on average -20/-25°C, locally spikes up to -30°C are raised this morning like in Pisaillas.

Tonight we raised a minimum temperature of -26°C in the Midi Needle with a feel near -40°C!

Have a great day everyone.
And how much do you get up at home?

Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise

Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )

⬇Map of current temperatures (Weather weather)
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[quote="nozawaonsen"]This morning’s 00z ensembles continue to suggest some potential (nothing wild at this stage) in FI, more for the east end than the west end of the Alps.

Hochkönig

Thanks Noza. the first time I have seen Hochkönig quoted. Off there tomorrow so glad to see the squiggles back up other forecasts that suggest a continued dusting. Not so keen on the big spike for next Saturday's return home but that's a long way off
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Love this:
-13.0°C in Bourg Saint Mauritius (865m)


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 20-01-23 21:59; edited 1 time in total
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JDL65 wrote:
Love this:
13.0°C in Bourg Saint Mauritius (865m)


That's a place right next to Aime-la-Réunion
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Definitely the coldest I've felt in a long time. At night you get those twitchings in your nostrils from whatever's in there freezing. That hasn't happened to me since I was in my early days skiing.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
we just need a little bit more precipitation...


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 20-01-23 23:50; edited 1 time in total
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@nunex, hardly!
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@8611, had that in Scotland in November! and not so uncommon.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@under a new name, presumably not just weirdly reminded of the first few times I went skiing when it was obviously very cold and I don't remember the last time I had it. Doubtless we could build a model based on my nostril twitchings.
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I remember it being - 22 in once. It was so cold the flame on my lighter froze Eh oh!
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@8611, I can smell snow incoming. Well, pre-covid I could.
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I always think the thickness of ice on top of my beer is a good measure of coldnicity!
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8611 wrote:
Doubtless we could build a model based on my nostril twitchings.


You would have to stand outside all night though. Skullie

Such self-sacrifice in the pursuit of science is admirable!! snowHead
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Hope this late Jan Spike on GFS runs and runs!

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Or indeed early Feb, we arrive on the 4th snowHead
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Polar Vortex doing it's thing... Skullie



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twoodwar wrote:
Hope this late Jan Spike on GFS runs and runs!



Hope not. Only have 3 days skiing on next visit, from 29th Jan. Bergfex showing snow in Ellmau ..,I want sun, please…
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@buchanan101, it lasted 2 runs. All gone, sun sun sun!
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Currently Bergfex forecasting snow next Sunday/Monday in Ellmau and WePowder showing sun. Both have dramatically reduced snow forecast this coming week.

Looks a bit undecided?!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like mini retour d’est early next week could be good for southern french and mauriene valley?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
In Val Thorens at the moment. Almost certainly the coldest I can remember over the last couple of days. Beers freezing, moustaches freezing, vin chaud not quite as chaud as it should be after 30 seconds, some lifts with signs warning not to take children up because it’s too cold. The first time ever I’ve actually skied wearing the fleece in my rucksack the the glove liners.
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
davidof wrote:
Improvement in the situation at the mid altitudes in the southern part of the Northern French Alps yesterday - just in time for the Grand Odyssey dog sled race to blast through



Weather should be a bit more settled for the next week, hopefully with cold to form a solid base.

What years are those other lines? Especially the biggest one?


The dashed line is an average winter. The other lines are quintiles.
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JDgoesskiing wrote:
Looks like mini retour d’est early next week could be good for southern french and mauriene valley?


Think this Retour could be the real thing and not the medja hyped one of recent seasons where it seems to cover an ever-expanding area.

Nigh on centred around the resort that can't be named Laughing



And all the more ironic is that we're on a road trip to La Clusaz instead of that direction rolling eyes
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looking a bit further ahead the next substantial snowfall beyond the Retour looks like it could come at the end of the month across the northern Alps. Though there’s a good deal of uncertainty and recent runs have tended to favour the east. A respite from the deep cold looks likely midweek before temperatures fall again.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Looking a bit further ahead the next substantial snowfall beyond the Retour looks like it could come at the end of the month across the northern Alps. Though there’s a good deal of uncertainty and recent runs have tended to favour the east. A respite from the deep cold looks likely midweek before temperatures fall again.


Certainly is uncertainty for the less knowledgeable like me who likes to look at the various fronts for the models - e.g. Bergfex, Wepowder; those two have almost exact opposites for Ellmau for the coming weekend; snow on Bergfex, virtually no snow on WePowder. I'd like to believe the latter right now...
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buchanan101 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Looking a bit further ahead the next substantial snowfall beyond the Retour looks like it could come at the end of the month across the northern Alps. Though there’s a good deal of uncertainty and recent runs have tended to favour the east. A respite from the deep cold looks likely midweek before temperatures fall again.


Certainly is uncertainty for the less knowledgeable like me who likes to look at the various fronts for the models - e.g. Bergfex, Wepowder; those two have almost exact opposites for Ellmau for the coming weekend; snow on Bergfex, virtually no snow on WePowder. I'd like to believe the latter right now...


Week tomorrow is snow day!
Not the weekend.
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Coldest temp I experienced was -45 C in Alaska. Wind chill was a frosty -76 C give or take. But who's counting when it's that cold!
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Only -25C at the top of Ischgl. But along one of those ridges with loads of added wind chill…
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Just glanced at the GFS ensembles for some of the major French resorts - there seems to be a warming trend in FI from the 3rd / 4th of February onwards. Obviously, this is an age away but something to track etc ...
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Need some updated charts. Austria looking good for next Monday/Tuesday snowHead
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Next week looking good.

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