“A level 1 was issued across Pyrenees mainly for excessive rainfall.
A level 1 was issued from Massif Central towards the Alpine range and northern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail and to the lesser extent for severe wind gusts.”
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
As a skier and non meteorologist, I simply want the best opinion about if it’s likely to have snowed, will snow, there will be snow, where and when I am going to go. I think that’s what most skiers want, in simple language. I concede that a lot of detail if fine, And would not deny any detailed scientific discussion,but a brief summary would be good.
Regards to all from someone who does not yet feel able to book a skiing holiday
“A level 1 and level 2 are issued for E and S Germany, the W Czech Republic and N Austria for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.
A level 1 is issued for S Austria and NE Italy mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and to a lesser degree for severe convective wind gusts.”
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
twoodwar wrote:
As a skier and non meteorologist, I simply want the best opinion about if it’s likely to have snowed, will snow, there will be snow, where and when I am going to go. I think that’s what most skiers want, in simple language. I concede that a lot of detail if fine, And would not deny any detailed scientific discussion,but a brief summary would be good.
Regards to all from someone who does not yet feel able to book a skiing holiday
The simple truth: Any snow “forecast”, beyond 2 or 3 days ahead, is totally useless — you might as well roll a dice. And even that is pushing it; we’ve all been in a ski resort and told clearly by the locals that tomorrow there will be a storm, only to have a beautiful sunny day skiing.
But I would love to see some feedback and stats from the far more experienced people @ Snowheads. Are there any stats on how accurate predictions have been for the coming seasons snow forecast?
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Poogle, I’m not really sure what you are asking? If you are asking whether there are any statistics on the ability of long term forecasts (ie seasonal forecasts) to predict snowfall weeks or months in advance then the answer would surely be no as no forecasts (of any credence) seek to make such long term predictions. They tend to be focussed on the broad climate, will probably be probabilistic and heavily caveated. The underlying scientific foundation doesn’t really exist for much more than that. I think you can push out a bit beyond two to three days in terms of forecasting (see the first post on page one), but forecasting precise snowfall figures is extremely fraught even at short range (not least because it’s a real task even trying to measure after the event).
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@nozawaonsen, Many thanks for your insightful knowledge, really appreciated. My question is more can you make a general prediction about the weather in the Alps next season? And if so, how accurate can that be? E.g.: can you predict it’s going to be generally a good snow season next year?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
My own view is not with any great confidence. Sometimes an especially strong climatic signal may be visible some months out. But these are only likely to allow you say that this increases the likelihood of this or that type of weather during the season. Not for a specific date nor more than saying the probability of this type of weather is increased or decreased, but even then it’s still hard to have real confidence.
So the potential shape starts to appear, like looking through a really fuzzy television picture. But that outline may subsequently shift or prove to be misleading.
So the higher the confidence you have in long term forecasts (good or bad) the more likely they are to trip you up.
That’s not to say that it can’t be interesting or fun to gaze out and try to pick out what may be coming. My advice would simply be not to take it that seriously.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@nozawaonsen, the level 2 storm forecast, tornados, giant hail etc turned out to be a few rumbles of thunder and a couple of spots of rain.....
To be fair there was a fair sized group of thunder storms a bit to the north but nothing quite on the suggested scale of the forecast. Storms can be even more difficult than snow to forecast.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@munich_irish, yep the ESTOFEX alert talks of risks and possibilities rather than certainties.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@munich_irish, Also the timing on that... we were in the bikepark this morning with this massive thunderstorm forecast for the afternoon. That turned out to be just a bit of thunder as it was for you, but the rain came at 9am and we got very muddy.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The week looks like starting with some warmer than average weather across the Alps and Pyrenees...
And ending that way too...
Though low pressure and colder weather look more influential the following week...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hot (Vienna hit 37.2C yesterday) and at times quite explosive weather in Austria with some big thunderstorms and tennis ball sized hail where the hot weather tips over.
Next Sunday and Monday could see heavy rain in the eastern Alps.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looking back at the AAM, you can see how it was in the positive phase Mar Apr May, and then switched negative June and July.
Which lead to (or coincided with) high pressure over Europe Mar-May
And low pressure June - July (although July re-analysis isn't available yet, we know it wasn't dominated by HP)
The CFS has been pretty good at predicting AAM would turn positive again heading into August. Latest forecast below shows it's likely to stay mildly positive for at least the first half of the month.
Some commentators suggest it's more useful to note whether it's trending up or down, rather than whether it's above or below zero. Either way, it's rising now and heading positive.
It's only one indicator of course....there are many other factors that influence the weather here, so no guarantees but we should see the jet stream move further north than it has been.
Which is something we are starting to see in the short term and also the 8-10 day anomaly charts.... low pressure in the atlantic and a warm SW flow over Europe
Of course it's more than hot enough already in SW Europe, been a very dry spell in France bar a few thunderstorms in the mountains......so above relates more to the Azores high pressure reaching further north than has been
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The Downstream impacts of Climate change are frequently apparent now. The speed of today’s plume for example is remarkable. Yesterday it was 13c here and pouring with rain at 10am. By 4pm this afternoon it will be 30c. A Ridiculous speed of change for our North Atlantic Island !
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Warm enough to sit outside in North Yorkshire this lunchtime which is nice. Bit chilly last couple of nights so Had the fire on. Looks like the bottom third of the uk will be warmer than average, even hot next week
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Looks like it would have been rather fine up on Hintertux first thing with yesterday’s fresh snow.
Temperatures on the way up though across much of Europe the West especially, London looking particularly warm.
Currently looking above average in Alps till mid month at least
Lot's of chatter about temperature records being challanged in the UK over the next few days as the polar jet looks like staying north towards Iceland for a while.
Will be a lot of snow melt in Norway as well with high pressure in charge. Read they had the snowiest winter in 60years and 3 times normal snow depths well into late spring.
Same article has this snow depth chart of the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains?) showing 19/20 to be over 1 std deviation above mean.
Looking towards mid month, several indicators point down from around the 10th Aug, so we may start to see a more La Nina type set up return, but then again the models often underestimate the length of time it takes to change a set pattern such as the current euro block.
One feature that is interesting in the more reliable time frame is low pressure appearing near Northern Spain / Bay of Biscay, would lead to some big storms if it undercuts the high and hit's the heat dome over western europe.
ECM 12z Op is in line with the mean anomaly charts as high pressure centres near Scotland
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Anyone hoping for a storm tonight? Watch it coming your way here:
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Bennyboy1, nice!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Bennyboy1, We got the storm in Perthshire, started in the evening seemed to go north then came back in the middle of the night, report from STV says Perth got 90mm overnight 42mm of that in one hour.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@larry1950, that’s probably not a storm you actually want!
Other than a few hits west of London we didn’t get anything where I live. Getting a bit desperate for the weather to break now...even just for a bit. Uk must be close to drought?
(Sorry I can never work out how to make it a proper link )
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Bennyboy1, thanks for that storm link - fascinating. None round my way at the moment.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Met office have a permanent storm warning but nothing in my part of devon for 48 hours now and there was I looking for a nice bit of rain to fill the rivers for a bit of sea trout fishing and water the veg patch. The local water company tell us to save water but they have had two leaks running for ages just down the road - they only appeared after the road was shut by them for water main work.
Am away from the computer for a while but the 12z looks very wet and windy for Uk and France for days on end, as usual GFS is the most progressive with depth of low pressure.
Big shift in the current pattern seems likely now. Biscay low heads NE and merges with deeper Atlantic lows. Fireworks and floods
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The properly hot weather has been fairly localised in the uk. Essentially the midlands and south east. North of the midlands it’s been very warm but a lot cooler than London. Had the fire on a few nights during the last week. Yesterday was about the hottest so far at about27c. In London I think it was approaching 35c
Short term expecting some more instability across the NW alps, big differences in models though, eg Arome has zero mm while WRF has 30mm tonight in my area.
Further out there's a relatively deep low with ex tropical storm features set to join the jet stream and move NE into next weekend. GFS 6z below for Friday.
Here's ECM total precip for next 7 days, other models are even wetter, but the distribution varies of course. I think anywhere in the yellow / orange zones could see localised flooding.
Warm european SST's (sea surface temps) will likely add to the rainfall totals.
And looking at the 8-10 day anomalies it's looking autumnal throughout....westerly driven low pressure across northern half of europe.
AAM has already gone negative, followed by AO and NAO soon it seems. Even further out the CFS shows AAM heading positive again in early Sep.....but doesn't mean much at this range.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here's today's 12z ECM out to Sunday....always good to compare the same model vs the same run (ie 12z v 12z instead of 12z v 00z) and same ending date.
Pretty consistent re. the orange areas over Ireland, West UK, Norway, central Europe. Looking at the pressure charts though, there are plenty of nice days to come in Europe, and I'd be surprised if central Europe is anywhere near as bad as NW Europe, given the level of high pressure clinging on
After all it is free
After all it is free
“A level 1 was issued for a large part of Western, Central, and Eastern Europe mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.
A level 2 was issued for parts of Italy, S Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina,W Romania, Montenegro, Serbia and N Albania for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.”
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
