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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

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Think you mean clockwise round highs (northern hemisphere ).
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Matrski wrote:
DanishRider wrote:
Don’t know if it helps, but Danish models suggest a Scandinavian High Happy


I always knew Helena would make a good weather girl! Toofy Grin


How did I not see that one coming ? Laughing Laughing
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My understanding is that high pressure over europe is the default year round set up, with the alps at only 45-47 degrees latitude, and on the western end of a large land mass. Historically in autumn I believe the Azores high tends to migrate from nearer the bermuda triangle north east to europe, so we often have an atlantic ridge reaching into France, and blocking weather from the west. I find we often get better low pressure set ups in aug/sep more so than early winter (as the azores high is parked further west late summer). This particular high pressure limpet also morphs into a central euro high.

This year is different, since about April we've seen high pressure anomalies either from France up to Scandi, or more recently eastern europe up to Scandi. The problem is the high never gets far enough north to be cut off. We need to see it further up over Norway for easterlies, or further NW towards Greenland for northerlies, very broadly speaking. If the high doesn't get cut off, it just sinks back into central europe. You can see the affect this currently has....below ensembles show mild and very dry conditions out to nov 20th. But after that, there is consensus for a steady drop in temps.



GFS 00z shows want we need to see to undercut the scandi high and isolate it. Then even further out FV3 shows what can happen if the gap is kept open, we could get the best of both worlds with weather systems from the west meeting cold air from the east, right over the alps. Note - these 2 charts are just for illustration, there's only a tiny chance that they would be right 300+ hours away, and there are many far worse options also out there.

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These explanations were all very interesting! Normally I check in and just glaze over when I see all the charts and graphs Very Happy
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@esaw1, d'oh, yes!! (Have edited the post now)
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ECM 12z again sees high pressure building over Scandinavia, which would draw colder air from the east across the Alps.

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denfinella wrote:
@sbooker, it's not a freak event but we don't want the current weather pattern to carry on too long as it's stopping cold air, and fronts, from getting near the Alps.

High pressure somewhere over Europe isn't necessarily a bad thing. But it depends on where it's centred, as it dictates the wind direction in the areas around it - winds go clockwise around highs. This might already be obvious, but northerlies / easterlies usually bring cold air to the Alps, westerlies are warmer but usually wet or snowy, while southerlies are too warm (at this time of year) and often dry (with some exceptions).

A high further north could put the Alps in a colder easterly flow, for example, which I think is what the chart above illustrates. High pressure right over the Alps is less good for cold air or snowfall as air masses can't encroach from anywhere else.

(Have I got that right?! Laughing )


Thanks.
A bit different to my local weather systems.
For a start our highs have anti clockwise wind. And our cold fronts are non existent. Very Happy
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Parts of the US also playing the waiting game...

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-realistic-pessimist.html?m=1
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Both GFS and ECM now suggesting colder than average temperatures for the time of year in the last week of November.

Though at present it is still looking quite dry.

[img]https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/01/28/Production/Outlook/Images/AP321028026.jpg&w=480[/img]
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Both GFS and ECM now suggesting colder than average temperatures for the time of year in the last week of November.

Though at present it is still looking quite dry...

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/01/28/Production/Outlook/Images/AP321028026.jpg&w=480
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Both GFS and ECM now suggesting colder than average temperatures for the time of year in the last week of November.

Though at present it is still looking quite dry...
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Though at present it is still looking quite dry...


You can say that again.....

ECM Op on the mild side of it's ensembles, so likely to be colder than it's showing. GFS (P) 06z another good run for lowering heights over alps. But concerned at the ECM longer term view, the avg ens show the high slowly moving west over UK, even out to end of month. Link to latest EC 46 day model below. Still, time is on our side, it could look very different in a few days.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/11/08/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_anom.html
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Matrski wrote:
DanishRider wrote:
Don’t know if it helps, but Danish models suggest a Scandinavian High Happy


I always knew Helena would make a good weather girl! Toofy Grin


There must be a pun in there about a warm front, but I think I'd better just get my coat and leave! Toofy Grin

At least the Danish model humour is keeping the mood light as we await the signs of winter's approach! wink
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Need snow in Espace Killy by november 29 - Danish models or not ! Very Happy
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GFS predicts blocking over Europe should slide up, leading to cold temperatures and snow across the Alps.
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1061602575181643777
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Currently looking like a big shift to colder than average temperatures from 19/20 November. No snow at present, but all to play for...

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nozawaonsen wrote:
Currently looking like a big shift to colder than average temperatures from 19/20 November. No snow at present, but all to play for...



By no snow at present do you mean there’s no snow associated with the temp drop or something simpler?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Both GFS and ECM now suggesting colder than average temperatures for the time of year in the last week of November.

Though at present it is still looking quite dry...


At least they may start the cannons. Saw on cams that they’d tried this probably 3 weeks ago on upper slopes in Ischgl.
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Very early snowmaking in the US is often called "blowing the mice out of the system".

Unless you have a World Cup ski race coming up (like Killington, Vermont, USA in two weeks), the long range forecasts and the finance department have an influence.
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@südtirolistdeutsch, I meant there are much colder temperatures forecast, but for now that also means very dry. Cold air from the east, but not carrying much in the way of moisture.
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The temperatures dropping before the snow comes will probably make the avalanche situation safer in the long run.
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Two years ago the Espace Killy had reasonable snow high up but nothing low down. The resort did a superb job with the snow making, making it possible to ski down to the bottom in all areas.
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Looks like it should be cold enough to get the guns running at the weekend.

Should be enough to get a few runs open for the openings a couple of weeks later..


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Mon 12-11-18 20:21; edited 1 time in total
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Certainly for Tignes they will try to get Double M going with the cannon.
Seen it worse in Mid-90s in mid-Dec. Only possible places were from top of the Grand Motte and top of the Val D'Isere Glacier. All else was Green.
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Well this would bring snow if it developed as low pressure pushed across the Alps.



However, it’s a bit of a long shot given it’s just the op run that goes for it. Maybe interesting if it builds any form of support today.
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I got so distracted by UKMO and ECM that I've left my coffee go cold. Huge improvement overnight, as there's more of a westerly influence, while keeping the cold easterly feed as well.
Could it come as early as next Tuesday?

Lot's of differences across the models at just T+144, but the big 3 are looking good.



Longer term signs of SSW continue to build after all the warm air pumped up via scandi high, and looks like AO and NAO about to nose dive.
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Worth noting that the extreme range (19/20th) of the Bergfex forecast is calling for 25-35cm of snow in Tignes, Obergurgl, Alta Badia, Livigno, and St. Moritz while Cervinai may see up to 50 with Zermatt reaching 70cm

What model does Bergfex use?
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
Worth noting that the extreme range (19/20th) of the Bergfex forecast is calling for 25-35cm of snow in Tignes, Obergurgl, Alta Badia, Livigno, and St. Moritz while Cervinai may see up to 50 with Zermatt reaching 70cm

What model does Bergfex use?


I have always found yr.no quite decent & seem to show the same as Bergfex
I believe YR uses a few different models for their algorithms.
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Bergfex (austria) and YR (norway) are both associated with ECM data. Their respective national weather institutes partner with ECMWF, so no doubt they will add their own minor influence on the raw data, but essentially the same.
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
Worth noting that the extreme range (19/20th) of the Bergfex forecast is calling for 25-35cm of snow in Tignes, Obergurgl, Alta Badia, Livigno, and St. Moritz while Cervinai may see up to 50 with Zermatt reaching 70cm

What model does Bergfex use?



I can't recall what Bergfex use. I think ZAMg uses ECMWF and Snoweforecast.com uses GFS

Looking at the GFS ensembles for ALta badia, I can't see anything that would suggest 25-35cm on the 19th/20th. Only one member run has any significant precipitaton between the 21st and 24th but this has no support. However interesting times coming I feel for end of November. Certainly starting to look cooler which should allow the snow cannons to begin
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Yes, Second half of November looking colder than usual which should allow them to get the snow cannons working in Alta Badia.
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How about this for an upgrade on GFS over the last 12 hours.....12z on left, 00z on right... 10 day snow. Numbers not important, just the scope of change....



Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 13-11-18 9:29; edited 1 time in total
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long way away.....but better than seeing constant HP in charge
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06z GFS sticking to its guns.

Far FI shows some intriguing options.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
06z GFS sticking to its guns.

Far FI shows some intriguing options.


Would this be cold and wet instead of cold and dry?
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ooh look at the high pressure move out of the way towards Greenland. GFS 12z starting earlier, though still 10 days out



should add it's out on it's own at the moment, nothing similar on FV3 or GEM
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@südtirolistdeutsch, yes cold and very snowy. Big if and far to far out to have confidence in. But.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@südtirolistdeutsch, yes cold and very snowy. Big if and far to far out to have confidence in. But.

But...the same doubts were had for the 2-3M of snow forecasted for Zermatt 2 weeks ahead of time wink
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@südtirolistdeutsch, doubts are always worth having about any forecast two weeks in advance. Doesn’t mean it won’t prove correct.
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At least there is hope though snowHead
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