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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Silverton, Colorado, US, opened to patrollers this week.

A-Basin and Loveland are blowing snow, due 1-6 inches of freshies, and ontrack to open the first trails in 1-2 weeks.



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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, that wasn’t the point though.


I looked at the webcam this am, I couldn't make out the chair other than it was running but the T bar didn't seem rammed. I thought racers liked it hard and icy.

Tignes will announce what will open for half term on the 15th October.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@südtirolistdeutsch, if it persists much the same as when you last asked a similar question.

nozawaonsen wrote:
Met Office Contingency Planners suggesting increased potential for +NAO during October to December.

If that were to be the case it raises probability of wetter than average conditions over northern Alps and milder than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v1.pdf
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Last third of the month continues to show potential for colder and more unsettled weather. Still some time away mind you.

Saalbach

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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyone noticed the amount of rainin Scotland lately?

Oban:



Pouring straight off the hills:



River Etive, first scene in Scotland in Skyfall was filmed right next to the first rapid, usually looks like:



Normal high flows:



Now:



Right angle falls at the end has lost half its height (but doubled its width):



Laggan Dam on full pipes:



And the Falls of Dochart doing its best Zambezi impersonation:

https://www.facebook.com/brackenlodgeslochtay/videos/1908767722578063/
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Scotland is impressive. Parts of the Med have also been pounded.



Marseille on Monday.

Yesterday and this AMs weather has brought a few flakes at glacier level at Tignes and les Deux Alpes but not much lower down, in France at any rate. Still too mild, zero iso is around 2900 meters.

Should be another weather system tracking across the Alps on Sunday/Monday then unsettled rainy weather from midweek - although still very mild.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 11-10-18 9:07; edited 1 time in total
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Blimey!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The artic is going to be 12-16C above avg this weekend due to warm air advection up thru scandi, pushing cold down across the US (parts of west coast go 20 below average, then east coast 8 to 12 below). Some of this cold air is forecast to move east towards europe, firing up the atlantic (steep thermal gradient), but just as the scandi high fades a little, the azores high is threatening to nudge in.



As long as a gap remains between the 2 high pressure systems, then cold will pour in from W / NW (below maps show 19th-20th). So typical showery and mild autumn into next week, then hopefully the door is still open for a wintery plunge.

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clarky999 wrote:
Anyone noticed the amount of rainin Scotland lately?

Oban:



Pouring straight off the hills:



River Etive, first scene in Scotland in Skyfall was filmed right next to the first rapid, usually looks like:



Normal high flows:



Now:



Right angle falls at the end has lost half its height (but doubled its width):



Laggan Dam on full pipes:



And the Falls of Dochart doing its best Zambezi impersonation:

https://www.facebook.com/brackenlodgeslochtay/videos/1908767722578063/


If that was happening in the SE of England there would be 24 hour news coverage. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Queues don’t look too bad on the web cam from Hintertux today.



That looks grim. My son and I were due to head out to Hintertux next weekend but with little snow in the 9-day forecast I'm beginning to think his broken fibula has been a blessing in disguise! Reports coming back from the kids are out there this week are that it is extremely icy and bare in places.
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What a remarkable year for weather. A cool but dry winter and then the mother of all late Februaries and early Marches in the UK with a long fetch easterly returning after an absence of 30 years. Spring didn't arrive at all and then straight into summer. In fact its still summer on this side of the Pennines although that is set to change tomorrow. We must be way behind our average rainfall this year.

A lot needs to change over the next 6 weeks for the Alpine season to start on time. However I think it was similarly warm last Autumn and then look what happened next !
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Peter S, We need some rain on the west side of the Pennines. A lot of the reservoirs around here are very low. And yes, it's still warm. We were out with our local paddle club last night in a crazy warm breeze Puzzled .

ps, looks like we're going to get some of that rain in the next two to three days.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Gaza, Your correct imagine people having the cheek to build a Tesco down there instead of a Waitrose Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
and i hope they move that car within the 24 hour time limit . knowing tesco they will give them a parking ticket
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
GFS 12z takes temperatures on a bit of a dive from 18 October.

@Gaza, at present with such mild and sunny weather hiking is far more appealing than the thought of a glacier. Hintertux is normally a bit hit or miss till you get into the second half of October. This year more miss.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Ski season starts today. Kitzsteinhorn open with 9 lifts, blue sky day. Shame I'm at work.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
GFS and ECM 12zs trending cooler than average from 20 October.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Peter S wrote:
What a remarkable year for weather. A cool but dry winter and then the mother of all late Februaries and early Marches in the UK with a long fetch easterly returning after an absence of 30 years. Spring didn't arrive at all and then straight into summer. In fact its still summer on this side of the Pennines although that is set to change tomorrow. We must be way behind our average rainfall this year.

A lot needs to change over the next 6 weeks for the Alpine season to start on time. However I think it was similarly warm last Autumn and then look what happened next !


Weather this year right across the world has been insane.

Swung through Holland this week and it's been like summer. In the middle of October. Folk are headed to the beach in their shorts and swimsuits this weekend.
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Another Pineapple Express today! Currently 20c in London at 4am and the weather across the uk right now is reminiscent of storm Desmond.
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Kitzbuhel opens today
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Wow 18 degrees in Verbier today ☀️ ☀️ ☀️

Off on half term holidays for a couple of weeks. Hoping to come back to snow on the peaks 🤞

Why are we going on holiday?


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 13-10-18 14:44; edited 1 time in total
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Highlights from Hintertux Park opening.


http://youtube.com/v/7v5cfuRRpSY
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Mr.Egg wrote:
Kitzbuhel opens today


Video from the opening day here

A big white strip on a brown hill.

Around 20-25c in Kitz town today.
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Currently 23c in London !! It’s 7c in Glencoe. Shocked
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Yep way too hot over europe, but the trend continues to drift lower out to month end.
Here's today's surface temps


And here's a pressure set up that keeps reforming, the azores displaced north (towards Ire/UK) and stretching into scandinavia, blocking off atlantic low systems.
So the incredible dry run continues, and the chances of rain/snow keep slipping out of the reliable time frame. Still out there in FI, northerlies in late Oct.



Pyrenees could do relatively well short term
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My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Mögliche Entwicklung ab Sonntag, 21. Oktober bis Samstag, 27. Oktober 2018
Nordwestströmung über Mitteleuropa mit eingelagerten atlantischen Störungen. Zufuhr von feuchter und kühler Luft zum Alpenraum. Wechselhaftes Wetter mit einigen Niederschlägen und möglicherweise Schnee bis in mittlere Höhenlagen. Temperatur unter dem für die Jahreszeit üblichen Mittel.

Swiss weather forecast seems to suggest winter is not far away I see that Jungraubahn have started putting the snow guns in position
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The forecasts have dialed back on the rain for this week in the French alps. It is now looking pretty dry.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Possible development from Sunday, 21. October to Saturday, 27. October 2018
Northwest current over Central Europe with inlaid Atlantic disturbances. Supply of moist and cool air to the Alps. Changeable weather with some rainfall and possibly snow to medium altitudes. Temperature below normal for the season.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."


Very interesting, if you don't mind me asking, how did your forecast's fore last season turn out?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm not a climatologist, so what does Jellybeans1000 summary forecast mean? This is for skiers, is it not?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Shift to colder and whisper it, perhaps snowier weather for the Alps still looks on the cards as we head out of October.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ahh. Many thanks Noza. Very Happy
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Shhh!
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@twoodwar, actually that wasn’t me trying to explain what @Jellybeans1000, post, just looking at this morning’s output.

Both ECM and GFS are suggesting an increasingly northerly influence as we move into the last third of October.

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Shame, Noza. Still dont know what jelly was saying. I was all too prepared to accept what you were saying as an explanation. I will keep quiet though
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@twoodwar, with the mention of -AOs I think there is inference of more likelihood of a high pressure blocking set up over the Atlantic which generally favours the southern Alps for any precipitation/snow. But I might be wrong, plus whatever it means it's a "long range forecast" i.e. a load of bollox.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
agreed hd, but I could not even tell if it was interesting bollox Puzzled
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Believe me. It wasn't.
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Whitegold wrote:
Mr.Egg wrote:
Kitzbuhel opens today


Video from the opening day here

A big white strip on a brown hill.

Around 20-25c in Kitz town today.


Wow that looks great.... Shocked rolling eyes

WTF are they thinking of? Laughing
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